Friday, April 29, 2016

Endgame For #USStocks Comes When Majority Is Overwhelmingly Optimistic

News
If the future direction of the stock could be distilled into two clear signs, I wouldn't need computers to track and manipulate complex information that exceeds the abilities of even the most-skilled and intelligent investors. The majority, chronically a day late and dollar short in terms of timing, would also be bloody rich from trading and investing.

What could be the most hated rally in modern history keeps the public afraid and generally watching from the safety of the sidelines, parking in cash or 'safe' US Treasury Bonds (gulp!). The latest Review of Sentiment, a tool that emboldens subscribers to think outside the box, confirms that stocks generally exceed expectation (usually bearish) when the majority hates them, and vice versa.

Headline: 2 clear signs the stock market 'endgame' is approaching

Is this the top?

In a note to clients on Friday, UBS strategist Julian Emanuel suggests that a few signs pointing to the "endgame" for stocks are coming into view.

The basic outline is that once the Fed starts raising interest rates the wheels are set in motion for the stock market to go lower.


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Illinois' property taxes highest in nation, study finds #Taxation

News
Romans fled from cities as taxation and violence spread during the fall of Rome. Migration from Illinois, Chicago or other states and cities will continue as long as taxation and violence rise to unacceptable levels. While Americans generally cannot see America's migration parallels to the fall of Rome, they might if they followed the money rather than headlines. Recognition is coming, but it will only come after substantial pain and loses.



Headline: Illinois' property taxes highest in nation, study finds

Just when you were breathing a sigh of relief at the close of another tax season, a new study comes out showing the hit that Illinoisans take on property taxes compared with residents in other states.

Illinois has the highest median property tax rate in the nation, with various agencies and entities taking a combined 2.67 percent bite, according to a CoreLogic analysis of real estate property taxes nationwide.


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Buffett Supports Higher Taxes Without Support of Public #Taxation

News
Giving back to humanity, the removal of I from our vocabulary, awakens us all to a higher level of spirituality and consciousness. Applying this philosophy of giving through taxation assumes that the money collected is not used against humanity or squander by corruption of those collecting it. The public, a huge proponent of humanity, senses the latter; the unexpected rise of Trump and Sanders supports it. Buffett might be rich, but it's clear a growing number of Americans see his comments as disconnected rhetoric.



Headline: Warren Buffett has a simple explanation for why rich Americans should pay higher taxes

Warren Buffett is the third richest person in the world, according to the 2016 Forbes list. And he has been an outspoken campaigner of returning his wealth.

In 2010, he formally announced 'The Giving Pledge' with Bill Gates aimed at inspiring the wealthy people of the world to give the majority of their net worth to philanthropy, either during their lifetime or upon death.

Buffett defended his support of lower-income populations within a capitalist framework.


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EU Military Preparing For Civil War?

News
This is definitely work watching, especially for European readers. The structural flaws of the Euro, combined with poor leadership from largely unelected bureaucracy are causing adverse economic, political, and social trends. History has shown us that leadership either embraces, bends, or breaks the will of the people. Military exercises preparing for the threat of civil war suggests it will be the latter. Attempting to break the will of the people, a short-term solution to long-term problems, rarely has the desired effect.



Headline: EU military rehearses for civil war in Germany

Approximately 600 members of European police units and military have carried out in April in North Rhine-Westphalia exercises crackdown on unrest in Germany and other EU countries. The scenarios were based on civil war-like conditions and were played in Weeze.

The first season of the exercise was conducted as part of the Lowlands Grenade program by 2014 completed (see video at the beginning of the article).


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04/19/16 #Review of #US10YRBond #Free

US 10YR Bonds
A series of interest rates cuts and a reduction in reserve requirements by China and numerous 'competitive' currency devaluations, suggest not only a quiet panic behind the velvet ropes of leadership but also a coordinated effort to reignite growth within an increasing stagnant global economy.

While coordinated 'stimulus' supports a countertrend rally of commodities foreshadowed by negative concentration discussed months ago, it won't reverse defensive global capital flows regardless of the hype. Defensive money flows likely includes US Treasury bonds and US 10-year bonds until the wolf pack culls the herd of weak European and Asian debt. The pack will thin the herd from the periphery (emerging markets, Asia, and Europe) towards the core (United States) economy. Government bonds, the previous cycle's safe haven, could transition to mark up as the global economy turns down and world panics; gentleman could prefer government bonds, notes, and bills at least in the initial stages of the next panic.

Complacency towards longer duration bonds, however, should turn to fear. What Mellow omitted is that investors prefer the public sector (bonds) when confidence in the private sector (stocks) is failing. Investors preferred bonds in 1929 because confidence in the private sector was failing. While gentlemen should prefer bonds once again, they'll like turn on them with a prejudice not seen in generations as confidence in the public sector and leadership behind the curtain falters. This will turn complacency into fear rather quickly.

Investors, largely driven by emotions rather than discipline, tend to focus on volatility rather than the message of the market. This tendency prevents them from recognizing better opportunities in quieter markets.

Insights follows interplay of price, leverage, time, and sentiment (click for further discussion of Reviews) to help recognize the transition from cause (building) to mark up or mark down for subscribers.

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Summary

The BULL (Price) and BULL (Leverage) trends under Q2 accumulation after the seasonal high position US 10-Year bonds as a focused bull opportunity since the fourth week of January.

Price

Interactive Charts: IEF, $TNX

The long-term trend oscillator (LTCO) defines an up impulse (green box) and 8% annualized return from 107.15 to 109.41 since the first week of January (chart 1). The bulls control the trend until reversed by a bearish crossover. Compression, the final phase of the CEC cycle, generally anticipates this change.

A close above 110.55 jumps the creek and transitions the trend from cause to mark up, while a close below 99.20 breaks the ice and transitions it to mark down.

Chart 1


Leverage

The long-term leverage oscillator (LTLO) defines a bull phase since the fourth week of January (chart 2). This focuses the up impulse (see price).

A diffusion index (DI) of -3% defines Q2 accumulation (chart 3). A capitulation index (CAP) of 16% confirms this message (chart 4). DI and CAP's trends, broader flows of leverage and sentiment from distribution to accumulation and complacency to fear supporting the bears (green arrows), should not only continue to extreme concentrations but also restrain upside expectations until reversed. A rally under these trends, a sign of strength (SOS) observed since the fall of 2015, would be bullish for the 10-year longer term.

Chart 2


Chart 3


Chart 4


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle (orange series) defines weakness until the end of the year (chart 5). This path of least resistance restrains upside expectations (see price).

Chart 5


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