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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Natural Gas Churning

Natural Gas
Natural gas (NG), an extremely volatile market, has tested the 11/17 gap on contracting volume (chart). This contraction suggests decreasing downside force. What cannot break support with force, often reverses and attempts to break resistance with force. Resistance is the 7/7 breakdown gap (labelled 2).

While the bulls control the trend, it won't be recognized by the herd until price jumps the creek of the Feb PDT resistance. The trend will accelerate to the upside if that happens.


Chart


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Review of Gasoline

Gasoline
The bears have enjoyed a steady decline since July. This decline, driven by a growing bearish majority, lead by crude oil, and anticipated by the invisible hand (chart 2), has frustrated the bulls. As long as the world economy continues to unexpectedly implode from the periphery to the core, this trend, growing more obvious as time passes, will continue. No market, however, moves in a straight line. Today's bear phase, originating in June when everyone was bullish, will transition to a bull (phase) at some point.

The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior that excludes opinions is defined below:



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Understanding COT Matrix and Market Reviews

COT Matrix


Understanding COT Matrix
Understanding Market Reviews

Select Market

Gold   Cocoa   Copper   Corn   Cotton   Crude Oil   Gasoline   Natural Gas   Silver   US Dollar Index   US Stocks   US Treasury Bonds

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Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Streets of Ferguson smolder after grand jury decides not to indict officer

News
Rather than "licking my finger to test for the direction of wind" before offering up some asinine opinion about the events unfolding in Ferguson, let's simply watch the people's reaction over time. Looting is a short-term response. Looters generally disappear once their motivation (the loot) is gone.

Movements against something, however, is a far different response. They're not loot dependent and often grow in size and strength over time.

While markets can ignore looting, they can't ignore movements. The professional investor must be able to recognize their differences.

Headline: Streets of Ferguson smolder after grand jury decides not to indict officer

Ferguson, Missouri (CNN) -- More than a dozen buildings charred, set ablaze in a wave of fury. Stores -- many owned by locals -- looted, with shattered glass covering the asphalt outside. Shell casings on the ground, having been fired by unknown shooters.

Welcome to Ferguson, Missouri.

This is what Tuesday looked like in Ferguson, hours after an eruption of rage over a grand jury's decision not to indict Ferguson police Officer Darren Wilson in the August shooting death of 18-year-old Michael Brown.


more

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Thankgiving Week Special

Special Offer
Receive a key through December 2014 for $10 until November 30th for a unique and unbiased perspective that includes cyclical analysis of leveraged money flows, long-term trends, and trend analysis/technical analysis (TA) based on the cycle of accumulation and distribution.

The COT Matrix and analysis, while more complicated than headline explanations, provide unbiased interpretations of leveraged and intermarket money flows. These flows, which define the collective message of the market, help investors favor probability-based rather than behavior-based (emotionally driven) decision making.

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GSR Sending Clear Message

GSR
The gold to silver ratio (GSR), a measure of risk appetite within the financial system, precious metals, and a leading directional indicator for gold and silver (COT Analysis) jumped the creek of resistance in September (chart1 ).
Jump The Creek
This bearish event, mostly marginalized by the daily chatter, was as important as the upside breakout -45° trendline in 2013. This breakout and confirmed the transition from risk-taking to risk-aversion precious metals and the financial system.  The corresponding stack (trend), growing to nine X today, continues to frustrate the bulls.

Chart




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As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis will be revealed by an Insights key.



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Review of Cotton

Cotton
The cotton bears have enjoyed stable downtrend since April 2011. This steady decline, driven by a growing bearish majority (herd), has frustrated the bulls.

The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior that also excludes unsupported conclusions or 'opinions' is defined below:



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As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis will be revealed by an Insights key.



Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle donations. Thank you for your contribution.