Sunday, September 15, 2019

#CrudeOil Review $USO

Crude Oil Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Crude Oil's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage (futures & options), and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Crude oil daily trend reveals the importance of professional buying in leading or confirming direction. Crude's ProIndex defines professional participation. A rising ProxIndex defines professional buying, whereas a falling trend defines selling. For example, sustainable USO rallies since 2106 has coincided with a rising ProIndex (green boxes). Rallies become vulnerable when the ProIndex fails to confirm.

Crude Oil ProIndex


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

#Palladium Review $PALL

Palladium Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Palladium's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

PALL's primary trend is UP and under triple upside alignment. The triple alignment forces traders to chase across multiple time frames. This adds power to the impulse. The impulse won't last forever, but as long as the primary trend is young, the rally could continue with several more resets. PALL's BuST = -0.49, so the impulse has yet to reach its cycle mean.

Palladium's energy is bearish and the ProIndex is ticking higher but show overwhelming support from professionals. It's a public driven rally. DI = -67% creates another weak blocking dome. It should slow the advance.

Make no mistake about it, the trend is bullish for palladium. It's not overwhelming bullish because the primary trend is 11 months old. What do you expect? Wildly bullish after 11 months. That's not how it works. If palladium's primary trend remain up for 20 to 24 months, it won't be easy. It will likely be a public driven event that should increasing amounts of bearish energy opposing it.

In the end, the disciplined trader will sell because TIME expires. If the primary trend lasts another year, it will be extremely old. Only the fools ignorant of time will be bullish.

Palladium DI


Palladium ProIndex


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Insight Subscription Key 2019 September Special

The Matrix
The Matrix

The Matrix, updated daily usually ahead of NYSE open, recognizes the alignment of daily, weekly, and monthly price and volume trends (the tape) for 44 markets. It also includes analysis of leverage (DI) from the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports*, Intermarket trends that includes market leadership and various forms of risk appetite, a true economic activity composite for the United States (EAC), and long-term trends and cycles concentration for US stocks, bonds, and commodities. The Matrix helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities in commodities, bonds, energy, foreign exchange markets, commodities, precious metals, and global equity markets.

Trends exist simultaneously across multiple time frames; trends are fractal yet most investors focus solely on daily price action. The Matrix defines composite trends and frames them within against previous alignments. This framing process defines the return profile and cycle of time. Trends are driven both by price (return profile) and time. The later is completely ignored by most investors.

* Commitment of traders report, released on Friday, includes data through the previous Tuesday.

Insight Subscription Key (Link)

Spend $70 and save $5 on the Insights key today. Expanded your understanding of tape or trends, a function of time, volume, sentiment, and TIME.

Subscription rates are time dependent. For example, the subscription rate for Sep to December 2019 is $70. It falls roughly $15 a month until December. A new key will be issued in 2020.

Evaluation Key (Link)

Free access to Evaluation Matrix and content requires a separate key for periodic updates of full version Matrix. Name & email are the only requirements for this key.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

#NaturalGas Review $UNG


Natural Gas Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Natural gas's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Gm Eric, would love a natural gas update whenever possible (maybe a post), DI falling and Proindex does not seem to be price supportive.

What does exactly BrT = 5 mean?

Thanks !


Natural gas rally should not be a surprise for the disciplined trader following the Matrix. The bullish high energy build (DI > 60% and DI2 > 25%) told subscribers that a short term rally at least was favorable. Disciplined traders could have "nibbled" conservative long positions. This was discussed on the blog and twitter. High energy builds occur when the invisible hand is quietly bullish against everyone else's bearish positions.

What does the disciplined trader do now? The nibble phase is over for now. UNG's rally from the high energy build has taken place; a falling DI2 tells us a bullish oscillation of energy is underway. The disciplined trader watches the Matrix to see if the nibble trade will be escalated into upside alignment of the primary trend. NG's primary trend remains in downside alignment, BrT = 5 (Bear Time = 5 months), so the primary trend flip won't happen overnight. Maybe another bullish, maybe less intense, energy is coming? Who knows other than the invisible hand. The disciplined trader's only job is understanding what the invisible hand is doing. It doesn't matter what you, I, or the expert on the Internet is "believes". Focus on the Matrix.

Classical technical analysis if often used to gain understanding, but it's woefully incomplete when applied to understanding the invisible hand. It generally lacks the proper study of energy, the composite trend (fractal trends of alignment & time), and participation.

Subscribers should also watch participation as NG tries to flip the primary trend. The process of flipping the trend could take weeks/months, so we need to understand if professionals are driving the transition. NG's ProIndex & PubIndex show both players are driving the rally. Disciplined traders want the ProIndex to make higher highs during the primary trend transition period.

NG's reversals (see Rev Tab) shows where UNG will meet resistance and find support. The path to a primary trend flip will need to chew through plenty of resistance zones.

Natural Gas DI


NG ProIndex


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
The PREV (the Matrix), an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix that's updated daily.

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.

Subscription service has been restarted. Free access to the Evaluation Matrix has not changed. The Evaluation Matrix will be updated periodically.


PREV (the Matrix)


Subscriber Comments

New alignments: VIX

Trump continued attack on the Fed, calling them boneheads for not lower rates to 0% or lower, has many questioning whether US stocks can rally unless interest rates continue to drop. Interest rates have been declining steadily since 1981, so a generation of investors have been "taught" by coincidence rather than historical facts that stocks only rally if interest rates fall. What happens if interest rates rise? A bear market!

Fortunately, subscribers with access to a historical perspective rather than opinion, come to realize that the majority's understanding of trends is limited at best. Some of the Greatest bull market moves in history came under a backdrop of rising interest rates (see Long Term Charts)

US Stocks and Long Term Interest Rates 1


US Stocks and Long Term Interest Rates 2


People are going to believe what they want; they rarely think critically and will attack evidence that challenges their beliefs. That's how it works. Opinion is poison in the investment world, but it's everywhere. The majority will be reluctant buyers of US stocks (late entrants) as interest rates rise. A select minority, those with access to historical facts, understand trends and load up as the media tells them a bear market is at hand The majority will be unbelievably bullish only after the market has rallied substantially from the lows.




Using the Matrix

The value of the Matrix is far more than a study of price. Trends are a function of price, volume (force), volatility, and TIME. The order of their importance is as follows: (1) TIME, (2) volatility, (3) volume & price alignment. Volume and price alignment, a setup that triggers action, favors Grade A & B, early cycle markets under high compression (↓COM). ↓COM suggests extremely low volatility, a quiet trend ready to explode into high compression (↑EXP). Weekly and monthly breakout signals are not finalized until the end of the week and month, respectively. Signals generated before that could be temporary. Keep this in mind when reading alignment.

Suggested Reading: The Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (CAD), Leverage Oscillator (LTLO), Diffusion Index (DI), Volatility Bandwidth (BW), Compression (COM), Expansion (EXP), Alignment, Upside Alignment, Downside Alignment, Sentiment Model, Intermarket Trends, VIX Model, Economic Activity Composite, Long Term Cycles.

Feedback

Subscribers are encouraged to submit comments or questions about the Matrix/Insights.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.