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Sunday, July 5, 2015

Greece Vote Begins

Greek vote today to decide their fate in the Euro. Polls, likely unreliable, show an even split between Yes and No.

The youth, devastated by a deteriorating economy and high unemployment, will be voting No. Older generations, groups heavily vested in the unrealistic promises of the past, will most likely vote Yes. The same type of divide was seen in the Scottish vote for Independence that many have forgotten as old news. While the youth may lose another battle (vote), their voice, fueled by rising discontent throughout not only Greece but also Europe, will gain supporters as cash is restricted and the global economy becomes undeniably weak by 2016.

Headline: Greece votes in referendum with future in euro in doubt

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greeks voted on Sunday whether to accept or reject the tough terms of an aid offer to stave off financial collapse, in a referendum that may determine their future in Europe’s common currency.

Held against a backdrop of default, shuttered banks and threats of financial apocalypse, the vote was too close to call and looked certain to herald yet more turbulence whichever way it went.



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Saturday, July 4, 2015

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Rising volatility is confusing both bulls and bears. This makes understanding the message of the market even more important. The message of the market, subtle and quiet in comparison to the thundering voices descending from the pulpit of opinions, is often hidden in plain sight by the daily distractions of life.

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Chicago To Tax The Cloud This Fall

Chicago, deep and debt and facing a $1 billion gap in 2015 without a pension fix, has found a way to tax the cloud by extending city ordinances governing two types of taxes — the city amusement tax and the city personal property lease transaction tax. The taxes cover many products streamed to businesses and residents. They also cover use of various online databases that could especially affect businesses.

Chicago, a city desperate for cash, is looking to expand the tax base regardless of the social and economic consequences. Cloud taxes place all Chicago based tech start ups using or selling the cloud services at a disadvantage to other major technology hubs located in the suburbs, other States, or countries after September 1st. This move contradicts Emanuel's well-publicized efforts to support a tech community. Clearly city officials are more worried about self-preservation than encouraging investment that drives future economic growth.

Capital is mobile. If 'could taxes' makes start ups less competitive, they'll move. The migration of productive, taxable human capital, will shrink the tax base and leave city officials wondering why tax coffers are shrinking rather than expanding.

The trend towards aggressive, creative taxation will accelerate as the economy (EAI) turns down sharply after 2015.

Headline: 'Cloud tax' upsets Chicago tech community: 'Life just got 9 percent harder'

Chicago’s new 9 percent tax on streaming and cloud services appears to have the local technology community agitated and, more than anything, confused.

Reports on Wednesday of the “cloud tax” took many Chicagoans by surprise, leaving providers and consumers of streaming and cloud services scrambling to understand the implications. Technology companies, among the heaviest users of cloud services, are likely to be taxed for the services they use as well as those they provide.



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Friday, July 3, 2015

06/23/15 Review of Cocoa

The cycle of accumulation and distribution defines cause within mark up after a reversal of mark down 2013.

Ghana and Indonesia, leading producers of cocoa, reported a poor harvest due to a mixture of bad pesticide control and weather. Contracting supply from the world's leading produces, an outcome that has producers of chocolate scrambling to meet demand, has sent the price of cocoa higher recently. The poor harvest could send the price of chocolate based foods higher through the remainder of 2015.

Bullish trends of price, leverage, and time could have cocoa jumping the creek (of cause) this summer.

Insights follows interplay of price, leverage, time, and sentiment (click for further discussion of Reviews) to help recognize the transition from cause (building) to mark up or mark down for subscribers.

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Discontent For Austerity Spreading Across Europe

The seeds of discontent are not restricted to Greece. As vicious cycle of deflation, unemployment, and social unrest spread within the EU like an uncontrollable cancer, other EU members, such as Austria, will be debating or fighting about an exit. More than 260,00 Austrians have signed a petition urging the government to leave the EU. In time, rising discontent throughout Europe will be difficult for even the 'selective' media to ignore.

Headline: Over 260,000 Austrians sign petition on EU exit

More than 260,000 people in Austria have signed a petition urging the Austrian government to leave the European Union (EU).

According to reports on Thursday, as many as 261,159 Austrians signed the petition. The number in total represents 4.12 percent of the country's electorate.

Since under the country's regulations the threshold for calling a debate on a potential referendum is 100,000 people, the Austrian parliament must discuss a referendum on leaving the EU.



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Europe Must End Austerity and Balance Budgets

Greece, regardless of any popular vote, have the right to leave the Euro. Those that view this right more as a privilege see nothing wrong with punishing Greece by austerity. Any student of history knows that austerity, positioned as balanced budgets by the Hoover Administrated, fail to pull the United States out of the Great Depression in the early 30's. Austerity's failure ensured Roosevelt's victory in the 1932 election. The vote of the people, the execution of the democratic process that the Trioka desperately wants to avoid, paving the way for the confiscation of gold and devaluation the US dollar. These moves ended the vicious cycle of deflation and allow the economy and stocks to begin the recovery process.

If Greece does not abandon austerity, the vicious cycle of deflation, unemployment, and social unrest will not only worsen but also spread within the EU like an uncontrollable cancer. This backdrop will sow the seeds of conflict and hate that will plague Europe for generations.

Headline: 'Yes' camp takes slim lead in Greek bailout referendum poll

ATHENS (Reuters) - Supporters of Greece's bailout terms have taken a wafer-thin lead over the "No" vote backed by the leftist government, 48 hours before a referendum that may determine the country's future in the euro zone, a poll showed.

The opinion poll by the respected ALCO institute, published in the Ethnos newspaper on Friday, put the "Yes" camp on 44.8 percent against 43.4 percent for the No" vote. But the lead was within the pollster's 3.1 percentage point margin of error, with 11.8 percent saying they are still undecided.



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Thursday, July 2, 2015

Aging Prosperity Will Yield to Liquidation by 2016

If the Fed is going to use the pretense of economic strength to raise rates, it shouldn't procrastinate or risks losing face to a business cycle proclaimed manageable or dead by many. The invisible hand, the true driver of the business cycle and global economic 'policy', has already begun the process.

Business Cycle
Average weekly initial claims (AWIC), one of many inputs that comprises the US Economic Activity Composite (EAC), ticked higher through the first week of July. AWIC's (chart 1) and EAC's (chart 2) negative and positive trend oscillators maintain the prosperity (growth phase) within the business cycle.

Prosperity, however, is aging rapidly. A series of lower highs since 2013 (chart 2) and close proximity to extreme concentration (chart 3) suggest an aging trend that's leading a transition from prosperity to liquidation (economic contraction). This transition, confirmed by AWIC's upside breakout of the 2009 downtrend and/or sustained negative close of the EAC oscillators, should be widely recognized by the majority in 2016.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Headline: U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to 281,000

WASHINGTON—The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week, but the level remains historically low.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S. economy, increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 281,000 in the week ended June 27, the Labor Department said Thursday.



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