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Sunday, March 1, 2015

02/24/15 Review of Euro

Euro
The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below:

The analysis below will be incorporated into future reviews for subscribers.

Trend

A falling trend has supported a largely unbroken down impulse since May 2014 (chart 1). The bears, highlighted by the red circle, control the trend as long as the trend oscillators remain negative.

Chart 1


Leverage

The flow of leverage (red arrow) has defined a bear phase since November (chart 2). This phase supports the expectation of falling prices.

Chart 2


The Euro's leverage oscillators, largely holding above zero since November 2014, advise caution for the bulls until reversed by a bearish crossover and down impulse (chart 3). Let the chasers chase strength until the message of the market supports it.

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines weakness nearly every month of the year (chart 4). The lack of a well-defined strength reflects the consistency of the decline since 2010. April shows some seasonal strength.

Chart 4


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

02/24/15 Review of Gasoline

Gasoline
The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below:

The analysis below will be incorporated into future reviews for subscribers.

Trend

A rising trend which generated a bullish crossover during the third week of February continue to support positive trend oscillators (chart 1). The bulls control the trend as long as the trend oscillators remain positive.

Chart 1


Leverage

The flow of leverage (red arrow) has defined a bull phase since November (chart 2). February bullish crossover confirmed the phase (see trend).

Chart 2


Gasoline's leverage oscillators, holding above zero since January, advise caution for the bulls until reversed by a bearish crossover - down impulse (chart 3). Let the chasers chase strength until the message of the market supports it.

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines strength until the first week of March (chart 4). After that, gasoline enters a topping period that culminates into a early July bottom.

Chart 4


Understanding Reviews provides further discussion about better understanding market reviews.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

02/24/15 Review of Crude Oil

Crude Oil
The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below:

The analysis below will be incorporated into future reviews for subscribers.

Trend

A falling trend supported negative trend oscillators since July (chart 1). This down impulse, however, was reversed by a bullish crossover (XO) last week. This is bullish over the short-term.

The bulls control the trend as long as the trend oscillators remain positive.

Chart 1


Leverage

The flow of leverage (red arrow) has defined a bear phase since July (chart 2).  Last week's bullish crossover (see trend) failed to reverse this trend.  This divergence between price and leverage that defines oil's rally more as a technical bounce than change of trend suggests caution for bulls.

Chart 2


Oil's leverage oscillators, holding above zero since July, also confirm a message of caution for the bulls (chart 3). The up impulse defines the expectation of falling prices until reversed by bullish crossover.

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines strength until the second week of April (chart 4).  This bullish tendency could frustrate opinion-driven bears trying to force a trade.

Chart 4


Understanding Reviews provides further discussion about better understanding market reviews.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

02/24/15 Review of US Stocks

US Stocks
The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below:

The analysis below will be incorporated into future reviews for subscribers.

Trend

A rising trend supported positive trend oscillators since the second week of February (chart 1). The resulting up impulse has driven the SP500 to all-time highs (2115.48) and LTCO above 50%. The former represents an ego boost for undisciplined chasers, while the later, a definition of extreme bullish concentration and 'overbought' trend, favors profit-taking over the short-term.

The bulls control the trend as long as the trend oscillators remain positive.

Chart 1


Leverage

The flow of leverage (red arrow) has defined a bull phase since early February(chart 2).

Chart 2


SP500's leverage oscillators have been holding above zero since early December (chart 3). This down impulse defines the expectation of rising prices until reversed by bullish crossover.

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines strength until the first week of April (chart 4). This supports continuation of the bullish trends discussed above.

Chart 4


Understanding Reviews provides further discussion about better understanding market reviews.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

02/24/15 Review of Silver


Silver
The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend), the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below:

The analysis below will be incorporated into future reviews for subscribers.

Trend

A rising trend supported positive trend oscillators since January (chart 1). This up impulse, however, was reversed by a bearish crossover (XO) last week. This is bearish.

Chart 1


Leverage

The flow of leverage (red arrow) has defined a bear phase since early September (chart 2). Last week sharp DI uptick confirmed its continuation.

Chart 2


Silver's leverage oscillators generated a bearish crossover last week (chart 3). This fresh up impulse sets the expectation to falling prices until reversed by bullish crossover.

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines strength until the first week of March (chart 4). The transition from up to down next week could provide the backdrop that support a bearish price trend.

Chart 4


Understanding Reviews provides further discussion about better understanding market reviews.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Friday, February 27, 2015

COT Matrix Updated 02/24/15

COT Matrix
COT Matrix
Select Market





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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Review of Corn

Corn
I have been reprogramming output to simplify the message of the market for readers. This is intended to reduce unnecessary discussions and opinions; neither are known to enhance trading/investing profits.

Investors must be able to do the following: (1) Recognize the trend, (2) define leverage and trade in sympathy with it, (3) recognize time/cycles.



Trend

Recognize the impulse. CO < 0 is bearish. CO > 0 is bullish. Corn's trend is down (chart 1). But that may change soon.

Chart 1


Leverage

Leverage leads price. This make analysis of leverage extremely important.

  • Establish the oscillation or phase. Corn's phase, DI < DI2s and DI2s generally falling toward negative concentration, is bull (chart 2).
  • Corn's bull phase sets the expectation of rising prices.
  • Failure to meet this expectation is considered a cycle inversion.


Chart 2


Trade in sympathy with the phase. In other words, buy corn when leverage oscillators close below 0. This is highlighted by the green boxes and arrows below (chart 3). Long positions, which can last several months, are reversed when leverage oscillator close above 0.

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

Frame trend and leverage within seasonality. For example, if Corn's bull phase remain in tact by July and the leverage oscillators close below 0, buy corn.

Chart 4


This analysis will be incorporated into future reviews for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.