Wednesday, January 17, 2018

#Gold Review $GLD

Gold Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Gold's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The bulls may be excited by gold (and Euro), but experience says play them by the book. The Euro is better than gold, don't ask me why, because, frankly, I don't care. I leave that to the talking heads, whom are paid to talk, not trade. Gold remains questionable as long as precious metals composite (PMC) holds below zero (chart).

LTCO, though negative, is turning up. BW is also heading toward compression. While these observations advise caution for the bears, they're not cover signals.

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Chart


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

#NaturalGas Review $UNG

Natural Gas Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Natural gas's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Primary trend (LeadM) alignment defines a power multi-month rally since 5/1/2016 (see The Matrix). Traders follow these trends as long as alignment and TIME permit.

The cycle of TIME, a comparisons of alignment (upside or downside) against all previous impulses in the form of Z-Scores, adjusts the risk of the trade. BuST readings above 1.96, for example, suggests that the impulse is longer than 95% of all past observations. Traders buying or selling when BuST or BrST climbs 2 are betting on the greater fool theory, a poor long-term trading/investment strategy.

DEFINING THE TREND

Daily (Tertiary) Trend = Upside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = -0.3
Weekly (Secondary) Trend = Downside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = 0.1
Monthly (Primary) Trend = Downside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = -0.3

The best rallies or declines come when the daily, weekly, and monthly trends agree or align. This setup is called triple alignment.

The cycle of TIME suggests cause building. Cause building the precursor to mark down (decline phase) and mark up (rally phase). The direction of alignment decides the outcome.

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These trends are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Monday, January 15, 2018

#Sentiment Review $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

Subscriber Comments

The sentiment model's current impulse has generated 34%, 34%, 0% annualized, maximum and minimum annualized returns since its inception on 9/14 (see The Matrix). The 0% minimum defines a no loss (zero drawdown) impulse.

The computer's ongoing 'concern' is rising concentration of optimism towards stocks. Early in 2017, I suggested that pessimism would transition to optimism as prices rallied. That has happened. Expect this trend to continue until optimism turns HOT (optimism), likely sometime in 2018. The computer defines HOT as WASo readings above 1.0; Doubter of the cycle of greed and fear should take notice, WASo = 0.90 (see The Matrix and chart).

Hot optimism may seem like a sell signal, but it's not. The flow of sentiment from pessimism and optimism and vice versa is defined by direction. The long term sentiment oscillator (LTSO) defines direction (chart 1 and 2). The bulls control the trend as long as LTSO remains positive (green box).

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These trends are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

Chart 1


Chart 2


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

S&P 500 Review $SPX $SPY

SP 500 Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

S&P500's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Primary trend (LeadM) alignment defines a power multi-month rally since 5/1/2016 (see The Matrix). Traders follow these trends as long as alignment and TIME permit.

The cycle of TIME, a comparisons of alignment (upside or downside) against all previous impulses in the form of Z-Scores, adjusts the risk of the trade. BuST readings above 1.96, for example, suggests that the impulse is longer than 95% of all past observations. Traders buying or selling when BuST or BrST climbs 2 are betting on the greater fool theory, a poor long-term trading/investment strategy.

DEFINING THE TREND

Daily (Tertiary) Trend = Downside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = 4.1
Weekly (Secondary) Trend = Upside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = 2.9
Monthly (Primary) Trend = Upside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = -0.2

While the bulls are snorting and romping with the herd, they're missing extreme concentration of TIME within the tertiary and secondary trend. Standardized concentration above 1.96 are rare and concerning. Readings above 3 and 4, unbelievably rare, favor the onset of cause building or misalignment soon. I plain English, the bullish should be reducing risk, hedging, or playing younger trends defined in the Matrix.

While 85 days of upside alignment is pushing the limits of TIME, it's certainly not the highest.  The market generated upside alignment for 88 and 114 days in 1980 and 1971.  US stocks like exceeded these limits several times between 1925-1929, though reliable daily volume data is needed to prove or disprove this assumption.

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These trends are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

#Bitcoin Review $GBTC

Bitcoin Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Bitcoin's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Secondary and primary trend alignment defines a power multi-month rally since 7/2015 (see The Matrix). Traders follow these trends as long as alignment and TIME permit.

The cycle of TIME, a comparisons of alignment (upside or downside) against all previous impulses in the form of Z-Scores, adjusts the risk of the trade. BuST readings above 1.96, for example, suggests that the impulse is longer than 95% of all past observations. Traders buying or selling when BuST or BrST climbs 2 are betting on the greater fool theory, a poor long-term trading/investment strategy.

DEFINING THE TREND

Daily (Tertiary) Trend = Downside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = -1.0
Weekly (Secondary) Trend = Upside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = 2.0
Monthly (Primary) Trend = Upside Alignment, The cycle of TIME = n/a (not enough observations)

Disagreement between the daily and weekly trends represents misalignment and consolidation; the bears control the daily trend, while the bull control the weekly.  Smart money reduced risk on the long side once BTC's trend fell out of triple alignment on 12/28.

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These trends are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, January 13, 2018

#Matrix Update $SPY $TLT $GLD $SLV $UUP $FXE

The Matrix
The Matrix, an array that display the message of price, volume, leverage, and time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities to buy or sell commodities, US treasury bonds, foreign exchange markets, and domestic and international equity markets.

The Matrix has been redesigned to display not only leverage but also price and volume alignment. Price and volume alignment anticipates future prices better than price and leverage alignment.

Gain access to the message of the market to trade like a professional today.
The Matrix will be open to the public throughout December as a holiday gift for all subscribers and readers.

The Matrix (Click)


Insights is a forum that uses the markets as the ultimate teacher and provides unique perspective on capital market, economic, and geopolitical trends.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Friday, January 12, 2018

US Presidency Should Inspire, Not Discourage

News
Put aside your biases for minute, and reflect on what the role of the US Presidency. The US Presidency should serve as a role model for all, a position of leadership that inspires the citizens of the WORLD. Idiotic comments by a self proclaimed genius continues to diminish the US's role not only in the global economy but also culture. Far too many citizen refuse to recognize it because safe haven capital flows, a trend driven by a global debt crisis, has shielded Americans from its early stages. That will change over the next three years.

Words are stronger than the combined armies of all nations. They inspire and destroy nations as well as individuals. "Shithole countries" does not inspire. These words infer superiority, a precursor to divine providence that enables us to commit atrocities against humanity.

Headline: Trump decries immigrants from 'shithole countries' coming to US

President Donald Trump expressed frustration behind closed doors with people coming to the US from "shithole countries," sources told CNN on Thursday. One of the sources briefed on the Thursday Oval Office meeting with lawmakers confirmed Trump asked, "Why do we want all these people from 'shithole countries' coming here?"


more

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.