Thursday, June 22, 2017

Bull Looking For Anwers Why Crude Is Falling

News
Price, volume and leverage flagged crude oil as far back as early May 2017. Few listened, now the bulls are looking for answers. They won't find them in one chart.





Headline: Oil prices have been nose-diving, and one chart explains why

In recent weeks, amid relative calm in the stock market, oil prices have slid back to their lowest level in a year. On Wednesday, WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark price fell to $42.13 a barrel, hitting its lowest since August 2016.

And it’s all about the most basic principle in economics: supply and demand. In the global oil markets right now there is simply too much supply.

This week’s slide came, counterintuitively, after a report earlier in the day which crude inventories fell more than expected. A decline in inventories would be seen as a good sign for oil prices stabilizing — or even rising — as low prices have been blamed on a glut of supply.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

6/22/17 #Sentiment Model $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

The Sentiment model, an excellent standalone trading tool for US stocks include The Matrix, should be used by investors looking to outperform the buy-and-hold investment strategy. The model produces the following observations: (1) bull and bear phases have produced average annualized returns of 26% and 61% and 32% and -7% since 1992 and 2017; these returns significantly outperform buy-and-hold (B&H) average annualized returns of 8% and 7% over the same periods, and (2) stock returns are clearly not random as taught by popular academic theories.

Sentiment Model Output 2015 and 2016

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Internet, Logistics, and Artificial Intelligence Changing the World

News
Plain and simple horseshit. Technology and labor trends are driving deflation. Amazon has made bookstores and most brick and mortar business obsolete and uncompetitive. The invisible hand responded appropriately by smashing the grocery stocks on the news of Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods.

Tomorrow's jobs will be focused on the programming of logistics through GPS and artificial intelligence. We can no further stop these trends then we could the development of the railroad, automobile, or Internet. It won't be stopped by monetary policy either.

Headline: Amazon cutting prices at Whole Foods will not cause deflation

Amazon (AMZN) buying Whole Foods (WFM) seems like the only thing anyone can talk about right now.

This includes Federal Reserve officials.

On Tuesday, Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said in an interview with CNBC that, “In a world of global competition and new technology, I think competition is coming from new places. New partners are choosing to merge and sort of changing the marketplace and [bringing] more competitive pressures on price margins.”

Evans later noted the Amazon-Whole Foods merger by name, which analysts have speculated will come with grocery price cuts.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Trading Notes Updated

Trading Notes
Bulls make money, bears make money, and but PIGS get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying that warns traders against the danger of excessive greed. Disciplined traders always remove their own capital (initial investments) as fast as possible and risk only other people's money while watching TIME and trend energy. TIME is defined by cycles unique to each market, while energy is defined by DI and CAP in the Matrix.



Trading Notes can be accessed with a special key.

Sample Trading Notes: 04/28/17

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Stocks Always "Struggling" In One of History's Most Bearish Bull Markets

News
Stocks struggle to find direction in what could be history's most bearish bull market ever. Price, volume, and lesser degree leverage define an up impulse struggling with consolidation. Bull markets, without a doubt, crash from position of extreme optimism. I ask you, is the majority optimistic? Those that cannot answer that question aren't concerned about stock market crashes because they're not qualified to time the markets.



Headline: Stocks struggle to find direction as investors watch oil; Travis Kalanick out as Uber CEO

Wall Street is looking a little wobbly. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open as oil prices stabilize after sinking into bear market territory as supply concerns resurfaced on Tuesday. Alexis Christoforous, Rick Newman, Jared Blikre and Dan Roberts discuss the day’s top business stories, including the resignation of Uber CEO Travis Kalanick. Where does Uber go from here?


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

06/16/17 #USTreasuryBonds Chart $TLT

US TBonds Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US Treasury Bond's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix and for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

06/16/17 #Cotton Chart $BAL #Free

Cotton Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Cotton's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.


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Price and Volume Matrix

P LTCO <0 and REV LTCO >0 define a new consolidation period. Consolidations often precede transitions to down impulse (red boxes). +BW's near compression reading suggest expansion is coming. If a down impulse drives expansion, the majority, a bullish group after a long and profitable up impulse, will be burned. These trends are monitored weekly in Trading Notes.

Price and Leverage Matrix

Cotton has been focused bull opportunity since May 2016. This opp has recorded 7%, 202%, -49% current, max, and min annualized returns for the bulls, respectively.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.