Thursday, July 9, 2020

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
The Matrix, an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize the Evolution of the Trade for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix that's updated daily.

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.


PREV (the Matrix)


Subscriber Comments

Sentiment towards stocks is beginning to rise ever so slightly even as talk of further restrictions (lockdown) are beginning to rise. The debate over whether schools should open this fall is getting louder. The President recently stumbled into the conversation by suggesting funding would be cut if schools don't open. This conversation will only further divide the nation that's already not ready for the economic and social disruptions yet to come.

The invisible hand continues to push the lockdown outcome. Subscribers recognize it by the Nasdaq 100 leadership in the Intermarket Trends table of the Matrix. The Nasdaq 100 outperformance (32% higher than the S&P 500 for 72 weeks) is staggering. 32% is 3.2 standard deviations above the normal cycle observation. BuST = 1.6 says the 72 weeks is getting old, but it could go higher. Readings above 2 are concentrated and rare.

The lockdown trend will likely push extremes not seen since the dot.com bubble. Inexperienced traders will find themselves long and unable to sell their positions if/when money flows change direction.

Nasdaq 100 vs Russell 2000






----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Access Key.

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
The Matrix, an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize the Evolution of the Trade for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix that's updated daily.

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.


PREV (the Matrix)


Subscriber Comments

Financials under performance, a trend ignored by MSM, should be the focus of investors. Financials are a key interest sensitive and leadership group. They have been lagging the broader market since the March bottom. Trades tend to stay in place until energy builds to reverse them. Very little energy has materialized to reverse this trend.

What are financials concerned about? Sovereign and CMBS debt default, consumer loan delinquencies, stagnant wages and job loss need to service these debts, and so on. The underperformance of the financials, a trend that exists until the computer says it flips, reminds subscribers that the global and domestic economies have been injured and will likely not recover as fast as expected. A shift into technology laden indices is a reallocation trade toward the new world order beneficiaries, not a economic recovery.

Financials vs S&P 500


Bottom line, stock have been trending higher because the best timing model in the Matrix went risk-on 5/16. The computer still reports consolidation, because the sentiment model, an important confirmation timing tool, is still bearish.

VIX Model






----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Access Key.

Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
The Matrix, an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize the Evolution of the Trade for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix that's updated daily.

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.


PREV (the Matrix)


Subscriber Comments

The Euro has entered a Flip in Progress in July. The long awaited reset of the primary down trend could be taking place this summer (see Euro Primary Trend). The bulls view it as onset of long bull market, but the bears see a large bearish energy build within a multi-year cause building formation (see Euro DI). The large bearish energy build is approaching a DI2 zone that generally coincides with longer term downside reversals.

The invisible hand is positioning for a bearish outcome. Investors will likely be surprised when it happens because they're distracted protests, COVID19, and shallow promises from public policy.

Euro Primary Trend


Euro DI






----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Access Key.

Monday, July 6, 2020

Diffusion Index Updated

Diffusion Index
The PREV (the Matrix), an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix that's updated daily.

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.


The Matrix will be fully updated on Tuesday.


PREV (the Matrix)


----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Friday, July 3, 2020

#Commodities Review

Commodities Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Commodities overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Commodities - foodstuffs, industrial, metals, and so on, can acquire just as much of a "spiritual" tone as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. Experienced traders might recognize this as stating the obvious, but understanding or remember the nature of the herd is important. Commodities won't bottom because we will it. They will bottom because price and time cycles get extended and the majority believes the primary trend can only be down. In other words, they give up right as the invisible hand steps in.

Will commodities bottom in 2020? It's possible. Follow cycle concentration (C1, C2, C3, and C4) and the primary trend described in the Matrix. Assets tend to bottom when cycle concentration fall below -2, especially cycles C3 and C4.

Commodities Intermediate and Long Term Cycles


Every asset follow the Evolution of the Trade. Commodities are no different. Commodities need a bullish energy build, or series of them to flip the primary trend. Corn is a possible candidate.

The bulls must wait for the primary trend to flip. They must wait for commodities LTCO to climb above 0. This process (bottoms are process as much as tops) takes time. Wait for a green box to materialize. Use the Matrix to follow them and stop believe something must happen. Believing leads to bad decision making.

Commodities Primary Trend


I am watching commodities with great interest, but this does not mean I have accumulated aggressive positions yet. The Evolution of the Trade is still very early. I have discussed this for months - warning people to be careful aggressively buying corn a year ago. I have said the same thing about numerous agricultural products - largely because their primary trends have yet to flip.

Follow me on Twitter or facebook for further discussion.

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Access Key.