Top Leaderboard 728x90 Advertisement Space

Advertising on Insights is good for you.

Friday, August 28, 2015

08/18/15 Review of Crude Oil

Crude Oil
The cycle of accumulation and distribution defines cause (building) within a broader mark down phase. The bulls, generally embracing bullish opinions (1,2) view cause as the accumulation of the energy necessary reverse the phase from mark down to mark up. The bears, following bearish experts, view cause as a pause within mark down.

These interpretation, however, ignore the message of the market. Investors following opinion often chase their tails in timing. They must follow the message of the market driven by the invisible hand. Oil's countertrend rally, defined by the flow of price, leverage, and time, represents cause building necessary to jump the creek of resistance or break the ice of support.

Insights follows interplay of price, leverage, time, and sentiment (click for further discussion of Reviews) to help recognize the transition from cause (building) to mark up or mark down for subscribers.

Please join us.





----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

08/18/15 Review of Lean Hogs

Lean Hogs
The cycle of accumulation and distribution defines cause (building) within minor mark down phase for lean hogs.

Profit-taking that relieved overbought (OB) several weeks ago. The daily chatter is linking last week's sharp decline with ample supplies and general lack of exports. This reasoning supports the sellers on rallies during seasonal weakness.

Weakness in Live Cattle have hogs struggling to reestablish an uptrend for weeks. Growing pessimism must be framed within the context bullish concentration (see leverage) and seasonal weakness (see time).

Insights follows interplay of price, leverage, time, and sentiment (click for further discussion of Reviews) to help recognize the transition from cause (building) to mark up or mark down for subscribers.

Please join us.



Trend

Negative trend oscillators define bearish crossover and down impulse (decline) from 67.5 since fourth week of August (chart 1). This decline, a sharp drop from the previous week, is consistent with seasonal tendencies (see time). The bears control the trend until this impulse is reversed.

A weekly close above 94.83 jump the creek and extends the countertrend rally. A close above 133.83 denotes the return of mark up, while 58.6 breaks the ice and denotes the resumption of mark down.

Chart 1


Leverage

The flow of leverage defines a bear phase since June 2014 (chart 2). A series bullish setups since February 2015, known as clusters, reflects at least an attempt to reverse the phase. A DI2 close below its June 2013 high defines a reversal to bull.

A diffusion index (DI) of 85%, yet another bullish setup within a cluster that began in June, defines strong, concentrated accumulation. A capitulation index (CAP) of 67% supports DI's bullish message (chart 2A). These trends, the flow of leverage and sentiment from distribution to accumulation and complacency to fear to extreme concentration, not only increases the odds of rally during seasonal strength (see time) but also tightens risk management for the bears (see trend).

Chart 2


Chart 2A


Negative leverage oscillators define a down impulse that opposes the bear phase and bear trend (chart 3).

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines weakness until the fourth week of August (chart 4). Extreme accumulation and fear (see leverage) could support a strong seasonal rally until the first week of October. This setup, yet to be confirmed by price (see trend), advises tighter risk management for the bears.

Chart 4


----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Failed Decline Similar 1926 or 1987 Updated

US Stocks
Price which generally leads the cycle bottoms should bottom within three months. If the conditions for a failed decline similar to 1926 are violated, either the timing of the phase transition has been delayed or something else is unfolding. That something would likely be a sharper and longer correction, a 1987 style decline that sends DJIAC1 and DJIAC2 Z-Scores below -1 and 0, respectively (chart 1).



Update 08/27

Dow Industrials = 16,654.77
Dow Transports = 7,866.72



----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Special: Sep-Dec $30

Special: Sep-Dec $30

Save $10 on Insights key through the end of August. Enhance your understanding of trends, leverage, and time through the message of the market.

Rising volatility is confusing both bulls and bears. This makes understanding the message of the market even more important. The message of the market, subtle and quiet in comparison to the thundering voices descending from the pulpit of opinions, is often hidden in plain sight by the daily distractions of life.

Thank you for helping my traffic grow!

Enter Information Here:
Select Timeframe (Required)
Confirmation Email (Required)
Message to Eric (Optional)
Follow these three easy steps to receive an Insight key today:

1. Select Time frame (Required)

Select the current month or desired time frame to active your key. For example, Jan-Dec $120 USD (first option from the pull down menu) to activate a key from January to December. This is the maximum price for a calendar year. Price declines $10 USD per month until the June. The price from June, July, and August to December is $60. This discount is part of the "summer doldrums offer".

2. Confirmation Email (Required)

Enter confirmation email for delivery of your key. Entries are case sensitive. Key are sent once payments and emails are approved and processed. Confirmation email can be redirected by aggressive spam or junk mail filters, so plan accordingly. Keys are sent within 24 hours of payment.

3. Message to Eric (Optional)

Enter short message or additional instructions.

4. Click PayNow (Required)

Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle payments. Paypal accepts paypal transfers, major credit cards, bank wires, bitcoin (BitPay, Coinbase, or GoCoin), eChecks, and more as payment.

Notes:
  • Key is active for the entire calendar year.
  • A new key is generated each year.
  • Information about subscribers is not stored, redistributed, or sold.


Please contact us for help or additional questions.

Name

Email *

Message *


----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

08/27/15 Review of Sentiment & US Stocks

US Stocks
US Stocks, lead by technology stocks since 2008, remain in cause building within broader mark up phase for months.

The unwinding of extreme optimism within cause, the transfer of ownership in which the minority fades the actions of the majority, continues for US stocks. Intermarket analysis confirms this transfer.

Insights tracks the flow of sentiment that compliments a broader message price, leverage, and time discussed further in Review of US Stocks help recognize the transition from cause (building) to mark up or mark down for subscribers.

Please join us.





----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

08/18/15 Review of Copper

Copper
The cycle of accumulation and distribution defines cause (building) within a broader mark down phase for copper. The flow of leverage and sentiment continues to describe a message of change. The majority, a group that believes central planners' policies manage the global economy (not the invisible hand) as directed or follows only price, will likely ignore or miss this message. This leaves the minority of independent thinkers tightening risk management and preparing for change.

A 25 basis point (bp) interest rate cut, the third reduction in six months that follows 100 bp reduction in the reserve requirement and unexpected revaluation of the Yuan, extends a coordinated effort to spur global economic growth.

While coordinated 'stimulus' supports a countertrend rally of commodities foreshadowed by negative concentration discussed months ago, it won't reverse global capital flows regardless of the hype. Eventually, today's largely short covering move will peter out. Copper, an economically-sensitive commodity, should lead a cyclical downturn in the global economy.

Insights follows interplay of price, leverage, time, and sentiment (click for further discussion of Reviews) to help recognize the transition from cause (building) to mark up or mark down for subscribers.

Please join us.



Trend

Negative trend oscillators define a down impulse and decline from 32.39 to 26.86 since the second week of June (chart 1). The bears control the trend until this impulse is reversed.  Copper has yet to reach oversold (OS).

DI and CAP fell as low as -80% and -32% during mid May. These readings, indications of extreme distribution (bearish setups) and sentiment (complacency), significantly increased the probability of change of impulse (see leverage). A bearish crossover confirmed the change during the second week of June.

A weekly close below 29.60 broke the ice and transitioned the trend from cause to mark down. A weekly close above 29.60; therefore, jumps the creek and returns the trend to cause. A close below 26.80 confirms continuation (of mark down).

Chart 1


Leverage

The flow of leverage defines bull phase, a negative flow of leverage, since December 2014 (chart 2) A DI2 close above its September 2014 low reverses the phase. A DI2 close below its March 2013 low confirms continuation.

A diffusion index (DI) of -22% maintains a bearish bias within a declining trend;  this is bearish as DI most often rises as price declines. A capitulation index (CAP) of 36% within a trend of growing fear supports DI's bearish message until it climbs above 50% (chart 2A). These trends, the flow of leverage and sentiment from distribution to accumulation and complacency to fear, support the bears that shorted June's bearish crossover (see trend).

The tendency for setups (bullish and bearish) to cluster could generate additional shorting opportunities into September. The yellow boxes highlight this tendency (chart 2).

Chart 2


Chart 2A


Positive leverage oscillators define an up impulse that opposes the bull phase and supports the bear trend (chart 3).

Chart 3


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle defines weakness until the fourth week of November - the fall transition (chart 4). Cause building, churn or sideways chop, could generate additional bearish setups or clusters (see leverage) necessary to fuel a more organized decline into the fall transition.

Chart 4


----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Why you'll be paying a 'Netflix tax' soon

News
The public sector which neither created or, like roads and public utilities, maintains the infrastructure for reliable use for commerce will be Taxing the Cloud across America. Cities and states across America (Chicago, Tennessee and Idaho) are attempting to implement streaming taxes associated with services such as Netflix, Hulu, and Spotify to help fill budgetary holes that never seem to close.

“Many [local goverments] have done it under the guise of ‘you can tax services as well,’ so I do think that it's a very predictable thing when you see these municipalities losing revenue from a big consumer area and essentially trying to replace that.”


The pressure to shrink the size and scope of government will only intensify as the global economy contracts. Unfortunately for most taxpayers, the public sector like all humans, finds it easier to raise taxes rather than voluntarily shrink in size.

Headline: Why you'll be paying a 'Netflix tax' soon

They’re calling it a ‘Cloud Tax,’ but it is sounding more to consumers like a Netflix tax. As more consumers turn to streaming video on services like Netflix (NFLX) and Hulu, and music on Spotify, states are looking to fill the taxes lost on the sale of tangible media goods


more

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.