Monday, October 15, 2018

#NaturalGas Review $UNG

Natural Gas Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Natural gas's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments:

Natural gas (UNG), whether traded on the CME or NYSE, has been one of the better setups in the Matrix. It's Trip Up alignment, a setup driven by the primary trend, has produced sizable profits since 9/19.

Smart traders, a group that's likely taken profits already, recognizes the following: A DI pushing -70%, and massive overhead resistance from continuous layers of weekly reversals from 26.88 to 28.56. The Matrix's reversal's showed us where UNG would stop. This reality is likely the reason why DI is pushing -70%. DI reading below -60%, however, do not guarantee a price collapse. It could be merely a delaying action until the invisible hand pushes even smart money to retreat. Easy money, the move from 23.77, is over. A bullish outcome from here would be sideways chop at resistance that forces deep pockets to withdraw from the short positions. If so, small traders like us must recognize and react. A close above 28.56 likely means a sharp and fast move to 30-31. Patience and study of the market according to the Matrix keeps us half invested or sidelined until the lines in the sand are broken.

Let the true believers scream about the virtues of the gold, crypto or stock trades. It's opinion until the Matrix confirms it. Matrix says watch NG. That's what I follow.

Chart UNG


Follow me on Twitter or facebook for further discussion.

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
The PREV (the Matrix), an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix that's updated daily.

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.

Subscription service has been restarted. Free access to the Evaluation Matrix has not changed. The Evaluation Matrix will be updated periodically.


PREV (the Matrix)


Changes to Matrix:

Historical study of leverage underway.

Subscriber Comments

Matrix finishes the week without a new signal. DI defines high energy markets. High energy markets seek triggers to generate double or triple alignment. Traders prefer these markets.

The backdrop for US stocks, a setup defined strictly by the alignment of VIX and sentiment model, has remained consolidation since 07/26 (line 80). History says that the majority, a group growing more pessimistic with each downtick, will be on the wrong side of the trade when the two models agree. Smart money can only watch the cycle of TIME (BrST) for the sentiment model to time the transition. Sentiment's BrST = -0.4 suggests that the impulse has yet to reach the mean of the average bearish impulse. The average bearish impulse last 16 weeks. The current impulse is 12 weeks old (BrT).

Consolidation is not a prediction of a bear market but rather cause building within the cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (see below). Rising interest rates is being blamed for cause building in October, but the misalignment of sentiment (sentiment model) and risk (VIX model) suggests that the invisible hand was warning us of this outcome as far back as July. Disciplined investors watch the reversals for guidance (see rev tab). Closes below bearish reversals (below) generally suggests continuation to lower reversals. Closes above bullish reversals suggest the opposite. Consolidation is bound between 25575-25633 and 25106-25112 (see weekly reversals). US stocks could easily be trapped between these zones until after the US mid-term elections.

BuST & BrST > 0, observations made in the daily, weekly, or monthly time frames, warn investors where upside or downside alignments are pushing against the cycle of time. The computer defines these alignments as Early, Mid, or Late. Late cycle alignments are vulnerable to reversal. A daily BuST or BrST > 2, for example, suggests a growing probability of consolidation ahead even in Early and Mid cycle alignments.


Using the Matrix

The value of the Matrix is far more than price. Trends are a function of price, volume (force), volatility, and TIME. The order of their importance is as follows: (1) TIME, (2) volatility, (3) volume & price alignment. Volume and price alignment, a setup that triggers action, favors Grade A & B, early cycle markets under high compression (↓COM). ↓COM suggests extremely low volatility, a quiet trend ready to explode into high compression (↑EXP). Weekly and monthly breakout signals are not finalized until the end of the week and month, respectively. Signals generated before that could be temporary. Keep this in mind when reading alignment.

Suggested Reading: The Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (CAD), Leverage Oscillator (LTLO), Diffusion Index (DI), Volatility Bandwidth (BW), Compression (COM), Expansion (EXP), Alignment, Upside Alignment, Downside Alignment, Sentiment Model, Intermarket Trends, VIX Model, Economic Activity Composite, Long Term Cycles.

Feedback

Subscribers are encouraged to submit comments or questions about the Matrix/Insights.


Follow US

Twitter
FB Page






----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Insight Subscription Key 2018

The Matrix
The Matrix

The Matrix updates the daily, weekly, and monthly price and volume trends for 44 markets and searches for alignment. It also includes Intermarket analysis that includes market leadership and risk appetite, a true economic activity composite for the United States (EAC), and long-term concentration (cycles) and direction for US stocks, bonds, and commodities.

The Matrix, an array array that displays the alignment of price and volume, leverage (DI), time, sentiment, intermarket trends, and long term cycles, is complied from daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices (markets) and Commitment of Traders (COT) reports released by the CFTC through Tuesday and generally released on Fridays (see COT Release Schedule). The Matrix helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities in commodities, bonds, energy, foreign exchange markets, commodities, precious metals, and global equity markets.

Insight Subscription Key (Link)

Save $5 on Insights key today.

Subscription rates are time dependent. For example, the subscription rate for October to December is $40. It falls roughly $15 a month until December. A new key will be issued in 2019.

Evaluation Key (Link)

Free access to Evaluation Matrix and content requires a separate key for periodic updates of full version Matrix. Name & email are the only requirements for this key.

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Friday, October 12, 2018

#Sentiment Review $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

Subscriber Comments

Sentiment measures from equity put to call ratios to the McClellan Oscillator continue to define extremely pessimism/fear (chart 1,2,3). These readings suggests an intermediate term bottom within one to two weeks, yet the news feed is full of panic about rising interest rates or some other excuse. October and February's declines displaying similar technical setups.

Composite Put Call Ratio


Equity Put Call Ratio


McClellan Oscillator


Long Term Sentiment


Follow me on Twitter or facebook for further discussion.

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
The PREV (the Matrix), an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix that's updated daily.

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.

Subscription service has been restarted. Free access to the Evaluation Matrix has not changed. The Evaluation Matrix will be updated periodically.


PREV (the Matrix)


Changes to Matrix:

Historical study of leverage underway.

Subscriber Comments

Japan has generated a signal. The signal is not Triple, so it's probably not worth pushing a position.

The backdrop for US stocks, a setup defined strictly by the alignment of VIX and sentiment model, has remained consolidation since 07/26 (line 80). Bullish agreement (alignment) is closer than bearish, but that's not a forecast. The majority, growing more pessimistic with each downtick, will be on the wrong side of the trade when the two models agree. Smart money is watch the cycle of TIME (BrST) to time the transition. The sentiment model reaches the cyclical mean in 4 weeks.

Consolidation was never a prediction of a bear market but rather and indication of short-term cause building within the cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (see below). Rising interest rates is the headline explanation for cause building for now. Disciplined investors watch the reversals for guidance. Closes below bearish reversals (below) generally suggests continuation to lower reversals. Close above bullish reversals suggest the opposite.

The current decline could be nothing more than a reset of the weekly BuST in many of the overextended US stock indices.

BuST & BrST > 0, observations made in the daily, weekly, or monthly time frames, warn investors where upside or downside alignments are pushing against the cycle of time. The computer defines these alignments as Early, Mid, or Late. Late cycle alignments are vulnerable to reversal. A daily BuST or BrST > 2, for example, suggests a growing probability of consolidation ahead even in Early and Mid cycle alignments.


Using the Matrix

The value of the Matrix is far more than price. Trends are a function of price, volume (force), volatility, and TIME. The order of their importance is as follows: (1) TIME, (2) volatility, (3) volume & price alignment. Volume and price alignment, a setup that triggers action, favors Grade A & B, early cycle markets under high compression (↓COM). ↓COM suggests extremely low volatility, a quiet trend ready to explode into high compression (↑EXP). Weekly and monthly breakout signals are not finalized until the end of the week and month, respectively. Signals generated before that could be temporary. Keep this in mind when reading alignment.

Suggested Reading: The Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (CAD), Leverage Oscillator (LTLO), Diffusion Index (DI), Volatility Bandwidth (BW), Compression (COM), Expansion (EXP), Alignment, Upside Alignment, Downside Alignment, Sentiment Model, Intermarket Trends, VIX Model, Economic Activity Composite, Long Term Cycles.

Feedback

Subscribers are encouraged to submit comments or questions about the Matrix/Insights.


Follow US

Twitter
FB Page






----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

#Sentiment Review $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

Subscriber Comments

The sentiment model turned bearish on 7/26/18 and failed to confirm the US stock rally to new highs for the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow. During the rally to new highs, I wrote how long could sentiment remain bearish in the face of bull phase defined by VIX since 5/25/18? Easy, the entire rally. The VIX model, measured by the term structure of the VIX futures contracts, is a consistent definition of the trend. It rarely changes.

Sentiment, however, changes more frequently. This does not make it less important. Markets and charts are nothing more than human emotions or sentiment. We must track them. They're the only fundamentals that matter.

The market and the trades we place on it generate the best returns when the models' phases agree. The computer defines consolidation, because the VIX model refuses to budge as investors turn pessimistic.

Line 80 and 81 of the Matrix defines one of the best stock market timing tools (table). These models crush buy and hold strategies by advising conservative positions once they fall out of agreement. How long will they remain out of agreement? Don't guess. Follow.

Table


Follow me on Twitter or facebook for further discussion.

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

#VIX Review $VXX

VIX Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

VIX's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The VXX, an equity VIX proxy, has very strong monthly resistance around 39. Expect this zone to be challenged before the panic selling stops.

Table


Follow me on Twitter or facebook for further discussion.

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.