Tuesday, August 14, 2018

#Dow Industrials Review $DIA

Dow Ind Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to long-term trends, it does not define them. The focus on short-term noise rather than trends, a source of confusion for the majority of investors, leads to the creation of bagholders at major trend transitions.

The Dow Industrials' overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Mark up will resume when the sentiment & VIX models agree. Patience. Until then understand the where the reversals lie.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Insight Subscription Key

The Matrix
The Insight subscription has been restarted in August. Thank you for all the feedback during the Matrix reprogramming.

Save $10 on Insights key. Expanded your understanding of tape or trends, a function of time, volume, sentiment, and TIME.

Rising volatility as the debt crisis evolves and intensifies will confuse all market participants. This makes understanding the tape even more important. The tape, subtle and quiet when compared to the thundering voices of opinion, is defined by the Matrix for us.

Insight Subscription Key (Link)

As always subscription rates are time dependent. For example, the subscription rate for August to December is $90. It falls roughly $15 a month until December. A new key will be issued in 2019.

Evaluation Key (Link)

Free access to Evaluation Matrix and content requires a separate key for periodic updates of full version Matrix. Name & email are the only requirements for this key.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
The PREV (the Matrix), an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix updated daily and published on a weekly or daily basis (when the need arises).

Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix that's updated periodically.

Thank you for all the feedback during the evaluation phase. Subscription service has been restarted in August to ensure everyone has time to prepare for the statistically difficult September to October time frame. Free access to the Evaluation Matrix has not changed. The Evaluation Matrix will be updated periodically.


PREV (the Matrix)


Changes to Matrix:

Explanation/tutorial links added. Computer now tracks DI setups for subscribers. This allows us to check the charts, mostly the direction of the leverage oscillator (LTLO) relative to price (LTCO) and volume (LTREV) alignment.

Subscriber Comments

Stocks remains in consolidation (neutral) as long as the Sentiment & VIX models disagree. Consolidation is not a prediction of a bear market but rather and indication of short-term cause building within the cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (see below). Resumption of mark up generally requires bull phases in both models. Headlines distractions such as Turkey or Italy are all part of an ongoing debt crisis that's spreading throughout the periphery economies. It will not alter safe haven capital flows between countries, so resumption of mark up in equities, a trend that rejects public sector debt, is inevitable. We watch the timing models, alignment, and focus of the alignment across the US equity sector to time the return of mark up.

The rally in the US dollar should continue to defy expectations, because the majority fails to recognize its role as the safe haven during a confidence crisis. Gold will join the rally once confidence's upward trajectory fails. We need the Matrix to 'time' this transition. Gold and silver's alignment says confidence is still too strong; please look at silver today. This will change as the cycle of TIME predicts a transition in 2018. Cryptocurrencies role in the transition could very well disappoint its true believers. Triple downside alignment in GBTC, a warning to sell or get defensive, could fall on deaf ears in the crypto space.


Using the Matrix

The value of the Matrix is far more than price. Trends are a function of price, volume (force), volatility, and TIME. The order of their importance is as follows: (1) TIME, (2) volatility, (3) volume & price alignment. Volume and price alignment, a setup that triggers action, favors Grade A & B, early cycle markets under high compression (↓COM). ↓COM suggests extremely low volatility, a quiet trend ready to explode into high compression (↑EXP). Weekly and monthly breakout signals are not finalized until the end of the week and month, respectively. Signals generated before that could be temporary. Keep this in mind when reading alignment.

Suggested Reading: The Cycle of Accumulation and Distribution (CAD), Leverage Oscillator (LTLO), Diffusion Index (DI), Volatility Bandwidth (BW), Compression (COM), Expansion (EXP), Alignment, Upside Alignment, Downside Alignment, Intermarket Trends

Feedback

Subscribers are encouraged to submit comments or questions about the Matrix/Insights.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Monday, August 13, 2018

U.S. #Dollar Index Review $UUP $UDX

US Dollar Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to long-term trends, it does not define them. The focus on short-term noise rather than trends, a source of confusion for the majority of investors, leads to the creation of bagholders at major trend transitions.

The US Dollar Index's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The US dollar, a trend in triple upside alignment for 6 days, has outperformed most assets in the Matrix. This includes FANG and bitcoin (cryptos), yet few even recognize it. This includes the Trump Administration which is certainly underestimating the strength of the coming rally and their ability to control it. The trade war must end as the hubris being displayed over the invisible hand will end in tears for Americans, countries, and possibly the global economy. Raising tariffs on Turkish exports as the economy enters hyperinflation shows a lack of understanding of the crisis unfolding.

Watch DI (chart). It's falling fast. The lower the number goes below -60%, the greater the bearish imbalance across the major players in the futures & options market. While extremely low DI numbers don't always reverse trends, they can shakeout weak hands over the short-term. This hold true as DI pushes toward -100%, an outcome almost never observed.

Chart


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Sunday, August 12, 2018

US #TreasuryBonds Review $TLT $IEF

US TBonds Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US Treasury Bond's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The US Treasury Bond vs S&P 500 ratio is 104 weeks old. BrST, a measure of the cycle of TIME for this impulse, has exceeded 3 (standard deviations). In other words, TIME up and the US Treasury Bond vs S&P 500 ratio is due for a rally. A rally in the ratio would materialize from a relative outperformance of bonds over stocks (either up or down).

Distribution of leverage across the futures & options market, a setup some experts are citing as decidedly bullish, is NOT statistically concentrated; DI is still significantly below 60%, so the distribution of leverage lacks sufficient energy to change the trend (chart). Hardly a decidedly bullish setup. LTLO, the flow of leverage that supports/leads price, is negative. Again, hardly a bullish setup. The invisible hand, the force that controls these trends, says the bulls are early and wrong, at least for now. DI and LTLO are dynamic messages that change on weekly basis in The Matrix. These are important trends to watch!

Chart


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

#Euro Review $FXE

Euro Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Euro's trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments:

Euro is Grade A Triple Downside Alignment. The Euro bulls are in trouble. $FXE

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Friday, August 10, 2018

#Silver Review $SLV

Silver Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Silver's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Silver's trend, a function of P, Vol & TIME, has been triple downside alignment for 37 days. No alignment lasts forever. The cycle of TIME on the daily alignment defines the magnitude of the risk. Please sign up for the Matrix to track it.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.