Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Gold's Fate Driven By Investor Confidence $GLD

News
Rising US rates and falling confidence in the management of the Euro and European banking system has been driving the dollar higher (Euro lower) since 2017. The bears, citing a well-defined downtrend from the 2017 high as continuation of the bear market, fail to recognize it as consolidation within an uptrend that began in 2014. These trends, potentially drivers of rapidly accelerating trends in US stocks, the dollar, gold, and collectibles that the majority will incorrectly interpret as an economic boom rather than a byproduct of flight of capital flows, will hold as long as capital remains confident in the world's main (core) economy - the United States.

Gold, and likely not cyrptocurrencies, will rally sharply when confidence falters as the crisis continues to unfold and intensify. Hyperinflation, an over predicted symptom of failing domestic and international confidence, comes only after it falters to the point that periphery and core (economy) nations can no longer sell their debt; they hold auction but nobody shows up. After that, they have two choices - default or print money to finance their unsustainable standard of livings. Default is rarely the option of the choice.

Intermarket trends allow investors to define the direction and concentration of confidence. Smart recognizes faltering confidence as risk-on trends in precious metals and consumer expectations. The former are tracked in the Matrix for subscribers.

Gold to Silver Ratio, one measure of risk-on and risk-off, is a proxy of confidence.

Chart


Intermarket capital flows have been antagonist towards gold for several months. Still bullish?

Headline: Gold steadies ahead of Fed meeting as dollar sags

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Gold prices traded near a one-month high on Tuesday as the dollar languished at a more than one-year low ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that is expected to provide more clues on U.S. monetary policy.

The market is not expecting a rate increase to result from the Fed's two-day meeting starting on Tuesday but it is looking for hints on the timing and extent of future moves.

Spot gold eased 0.1 percent to $1,252.60 an ounce at 0916 GMT. The metal had touched $1,258.79 in the previous session, its highest since June 23.

U.S. gold futures climbed 0.1 percent to $1,257.


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Tuesday, July 25, 2017

07/017/17 Reading the Tape #Volatility Index $VIX

Reading the Tape
Traders read the tape - ticker tape in the old days to determine the recent buying and selling pressure. Here lies the importance of volume. It's easy to spot a large buyer or seller when the volume is light. Big buyers usually enter before big moves.

Jesse Livermore read the tape and never fought it.

Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why or wherefore. It doesn’t go into explanations. I didn’t ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and I don’t ask it today at forty…, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.


While the tape, often triggered by price in reaction or anticipation of the new flow, is triggered by price, it's fueled by force. Volume is the domain of force. Traders/investors must learn to read the force behind the trend.

Subscriber Comments

The Volatility Index (VIX) sets 4-year low on Monday as experts grow increasing concerned but ineffective in offering explanation, Bitcoin soars because the sh*t will hit the fan - taking down everything but the cyrpotcurrencies*, and public resentment towards politicians grows.  These and other observations lead to one inevitable conclusion - the majority, a day late and dollar short in terms of timing will see their asses paddled from 2018 to 2020.

*This argument is no different that claims that gold will soar to $50,000, while most assets including stocks get crushed.

Chart
Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

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Monday, July 24, 2017

07/17/17 #Biotech Stocks Chart $XBI $IBB

Biotech Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Biotechs overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the Biotech Charts for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Chart
Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Biotech's primary trend has been aligned up since 5/1. Amateur investors, generally preoccupied with the FANG stocks or Bitcoins, have generally ignored the 90% annualized return over 13 weeks. Numerous Facebook groups can be provided to those looking to experience the cheer leading first hand.

Biotech bulls don't care about approval from the majority. As we discussed in early spring, the majority will turn bullish only after price (XBI and IBB) trades at much higher levels. Professional investors, a small group that properly enters and exits the flow of trends, will be selling their positions to them.  They are necessary for exiting the flow.

How long does the current aligned up impulse last?

Trading Notes defines the average and max cycle duration since 2006. Estimates of TIME can be adjusted from the Nasdaq Biotech Index, a similar biotech proxy that trades as far back as 2001.

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Sunday, July 23, 2017

07/17/17 #Gold Chart $GLD

Gold Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Gold's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Gold
Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Trends
Price and Volume
Down & Up. This pairing defines a bullish divergence within consolidation.

Price and Leverage
Down & Down. This pairing defines an aligned down impulse.

Energy
Q2 DI = 32% defines accumulation within bearish cycle.

Time
Traders do not pursue out-of-alignment trends.

Seasonals
Seasonal strength ends in August.

Conclusion
Consolidation, the misalignment of price and volume, hides steady accumulation that's most likely setting up a rally in 2018.

Please join EricDeGrootsInsights for further discussion

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Trading Notes Updated

Trading Notes
Bulls make money, bears make money, and but PIGS get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying that warns traders against the danger of excessive greed. Disciplined traders always remove their own capital (initial investments) as fast as possible and risk only other people's money while watching TIME and trend energy. TIME is defined by cycles unique to each market, while energy is defined by DI and CAP in the Matrix.



Trading Notes can be accessed with a special key.

Trading Notes Sample: 07/03/17

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#Matrix Update $SPY $TLT $GLD $SLV $UUP $FXE

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The COT Matrix, an array that display the message of Price, Leverage (DI) & Sentiment (CAP), and Time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities to buy or sell agricultural commodities, US treasury bonds, energy, foreign exchange markets, commodities, precious metals, livestock, lumber, and domestic and international equity markets.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.