Saturday, February 13, 2016

#BankStocks at Risk In the Coming #Contagion

News
The evolving global debt crisis places government bonds, major holders and sellers of them - banks and pension funds at risk as the economic and financial contagion spreads and intensifies into 2017. European banks, such as Deutsche Bank, Soc Gen, Banco Populare, etc, will get hit first. Since the global banking system is highly interconnected, it's inevitable that US banks will follow. The world won't care what price Jamie Dimon paid for his vote of confidence in JPMorgan in 2016 once the contagion spreads.



Headline: Dimon's Bold JPMorgan Bet Makes Him $2.2 Million Richer in a Day

Jamie Dimon only had to wait a day for his big bet on JPMorgan Chase & Co. to pay off.

The bank’s shares jumped 8.3 percent in New York trading Friday -- the most since November 2011 -- after the chief executive officer spent $26.6 million for 500,000 shares. Dimon’s paper gain was about $2.2 million after the price surged to $57.49. He paid from $53.13 to $53.30 apiece on Thursday.


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01/05/16 #Review of #Russell2000 #Free

Russell 2k
As long as the US Stock rally continues to defy conventional wisdom of the majority - for example a bull market in stocks cannot coexist with a bear market in bonds, bearish calls (1, 2, 3) and pessimism towards them will only grow.

Small cap stocks (IWM), a key leadership group, has been lagging the broader market since 2006. This underperformance, even more pronounced since 2013, suggest not only steady deterioration in the domestic and global economies but also defines a highly focused - Dow Industrial and SP 500 lead US stock rally. This is consistent will an evolving global debt crisis driven by safe haven capital flows from Europe and emerging market to the United States.

Investors, largely driven by emotions rather than discipline, tend to focus on volatility rather than the message of the market. This tendency prevents them from recognizing better opportunities in quieter markets.

Insights constructs and interprets the message of the market, the flow of sentiment, price, leverage, and time in order to define trends within the cycle of accumulation and distribution for subscribers.

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Summary

The BEAR (Price) and BEAR (Leverage) trends under Q2 accumulation a seasonal high approaches position Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) as an aging bear opportunity.

Price

Interactive Charts: IWM, IWM PF

A negative long-term trend oscillator (LTCO) defines a down impulse from 115.01 to 103.85 since the third week of August (chart 1). The bears control the trend until reversed by a bullish crossover. Compression (white circles) within the CEC cycle generally anticipates this change.

A close above 107.48 jumps the creek and transitions the trend from mark down to cause. A close below 102.39 breaks the ice and maintains mark down.

Chart 1


Leverage

A positive long-term leverage oscillator (LTLO) defines a bear phase since the second week of August 2015 (chart 2). This focuses the down impulse (see price).

A diffusion index (DI) of 44% defines Q2 accumulation (chart 3). A capitulation index (CAP) of 22% supports this message (chart 4). DI and CAP's trends, broader flows of leverage and sentiment from distribution to accumulation and complacency to fear supporting the bears (green arrows), should not only continue to extreme concentrations but also restrain upside expectations until reversed (see price). Rally under these trends, a sign of strength (SOS) , would be bullish for small cap stocks longer-term.

Chart 2


Chart 3


Chart 4


Time/Cycle

The 5-year seasonal cycle (purple series) defines weakness until the fourth week of January (chart 5). This seasonal path of least resistance restrains upside expectations over the short-term (see price).

Chart 5


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02/09/16 #Review of #Sugar

Sugar
The International Sugar Organization (ISO), assuming average growth in global sugar demand forecasts a looming world production deficit of more than 6 m tonnes over the next two seasons. It also forecasts a 2.3m tonne shortfall in 2015-2016. This is the first shortfall in six years. Sugar, driven more by the invisible hand following deflationary forces than the ISO forecasts, has been mired in a bear market despite production deficits since 2011.

Investors, largely driven by emotions rather than discipline, tend to focus on volatility rather than the message of the market. This tendency prevents them from recognizing better opportunities in quieter markets.

Insights constructs and interprets the message of the market, the flow of sentiment, price, leverage, and time in order to define trends within the cycle of accumulation and distribution for subscribers.

Please join us.





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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

02/09/16 #Review of #Gold

Gold
Gold (GLD) is showing signs of life again. The public, those that still care about gold, are mostly disinterested after years of underperformance. The countertrend rally, yet to change the long-term downtrend, is pushing against resistance at 112.49.

The bulls and bears screaming BUY and SELL before it's too late. Many of the bulls believe a stock market collapse will send capital fleeing almost exclusively to gold. This is unlikely, but will receive some attention as long as stocks falter. The coming collapse on confidence towards government, driven by their inability to reform or fund themselves, will send capital fleeing from the public to private sector. Gold is but one choice from an array of private sector options.

Investors, largely driven by emotions rather than discipline, tend to focus on volatility rather than the message of the market. This tendency prevents them from recognizing better opportunities in quieter markets.

Insights constructs and interprets the message of the market, the flow of sentiment, price, leverage, and time in order to define trends within the cycle of accumulation and distribution for subscribers.

Please join us.





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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

COT Matrix Update

COT Matrix
The COT Matrix, an array that display the message of Price, Leverage (DI) & Sentiment (CAP), and Time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities in agricultural commodities, bonds, energy, foreign exchange, commodities, precious metals, livestock, and domestic and international equity markets.

The majority, followers of headlines, volatility, and hype, is likely focusing on US stocks, crude oil, gold, and US Treasury bonds. The COT Matrix, however, is quietly flagging Sugar, the Japanese Yen, and Cotton.

COT Matrix

Select Market



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Friday, February 12, 2016

#Poll: Select Market To Be Reviewed

Vote to select the next market reviewed.

Please consult the COT Matrix before voting. The highest vote total will be posted.



Select Market To Be Reviewed
 
pollcode.com free polls


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.