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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Review of US Stocks

NYSE Comp
Price tested August support on a 11% increase in volume (chart 1).  This surge in downside force increases the probability that this zone will be tested again.

Traders are watching force as price tests support.  Bullish setups, indications of decreasing force, increase the probability of a trend reversal.

The timeline of technical events reveals a cause building phase that the bulls, slow to recognize, can no longer deny. Cause building, periods in which sentiment generally follows price, represent the accumulation of energy necessary to fuel the next impulse wave (chart 2). This wave usually follows the dominant trend and cycles. This trend, despite growing pessimism, is up.

Chart 1


Weighted sentiment which follows price has fallen below 0 to -0.40

Chart 2


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As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis will be revealed by an Insights key.



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Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Mailbox

Thanks,

Lousy typing is offensive. I'm going shit down and have some lunch first, then fire the lead writer.

Eric

Eric,

you included what looks like a type-o in the most recent post. im not offended.

S


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As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis will be revealed by an Insights key.



Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle donations. Thank you for your contribution.

Compromise versus "Sit Down And Shut Up"

News
The youth, burdened by the liabilities of previous generations, are pushing back nearly everywhere. They're demanding better jobs, lower taxes, and freedoms that previous generations won and enjoyed. As long as these demands reduce the standard of livings for the status quo - those in power, don't expect much to change. History shows that the battle between compromise and "sit down and shut up" favors the the latter. That is, until the "shit down and shut up" crowd pushes back.



Headline: Hong Kong Protests: How China Lost Hong Kong's Youth

The protests engulfing Hong Kong intensified on Tuesday, as demonstrators fanned out across the territory’s business districts to express their opposition to Chinese interference in Hong Kong’s electoral system. But while the protests now include a broad cross-section of society, their origin as a youth-led movement illustrate the degree to which Hong Kong’s younger generation, too young to remember British rule, feels increasingly alienated from Chinese society.

“Hong Kong is Hong Kong and China is China,” said Ashley Au, a 31-year-old public relations manager demonstrating in the Causeway Bay neighborhood. “We want more of a say in our government,” she said by telephone.

more

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As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis will be revealed by an Insights key.



Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle donations. Thank you for your contribution.

History Repeats Because Majority Follows The Herd: Gasoline Review

Gasoline
How quickly things change. Now that prices at the pump have fallen below $3 in may parts of the US, few remember, possibly other than traders prone to following the herd, headlines such as pain at the pump that bears and sideline watchers into raging bulls that sent gas and oil SOARING!

That's how it works. Investors, generally emotionally driven, prefer following the illogical herd rather than the logical message of the market. The herd following chaos in Iraq that still exists today chased soaring gas and oil prices this summer despite the fact that a bear phase (negative to positive DI oscillation) began in April 2014. While investors chased, they ignored probabilities and bet against the message of the market. This is never wise. UGA, an equity proxy for RBOB gasoline, peaked at 64.07 on 06/24/14. Today, it trades near 55; nearly all of the herd following bulls have been slaughtered by the vicious decline (chart 1). The majority of gasoline investors following bearish headlines have turned bearish. History repeats because the majority, regardless of experience and wisdom, follows the herd.



Headline: Prices at the pump head below $3 in much of US

NEW YORK (AP) — The price of a gallon of gasoline may soon start with a "2'' across much the country.

Gasoline prices typically decline in autumn, and this year they are being pulled even lower by falling global oil prices. By the end of the year, up to 30 states could have an average gasoline price of less than $3 a gallon.


more

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Gasoline Crashes Through Support

Gasoline
Crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply yesterday (chart 1 and 2). The headlines, reacting solely to price, begin the process of providing reasons 'why' after the fact. This explanation process, directed towards retail money and completely useless in terms of price anticipation, supports the chasing of weakness and tails.







Chart 1


Chart 2


Headline: Oil Futures Slide Sharply on Supply Worries

U.S. oil prices posted their largest drop in almost two years and the global Brent contract fell into a bear market on Tuesday after OPEC oil supplies reportedly exceeded demand.

Oil prices were also under pressure as traders squared up books with the last trading day of the month and the quarter, and on the expiration of contracts for refined fuels.

Analysts and traders said investment managers appeared to be capitulating after a rout in crude markets that has seen benchmark U.S. prices fall 13% and the global Brent contract lose 16% in the quarter that ended Tuesday. The steep decline has come as domestic and global supplies have ballooned, with output from the U.S., Libya and Iraq surging to the point where the market no longer responds to usual bullish drivers such as disturbances in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

more

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As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis will be revealed by an Insights key.



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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Silver's Tape Remains Bearish

GSR
Silver's tape, which revealed outflows, risk-aversion, and a technical breakdown weeks ago, remains bearish (see below).  Remain defensive until this message and the oscillation (cycle) changes. Since silver often leads gold, traders acting without opinion must question how much longer can gold hold above its 2013 low?






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Reivew of Gold and Gold Shares

Gold Shares


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As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis will be revealed by an Insights key.



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