Saturday, May 30, 2020

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

The Matrix
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Another surprising reality of the consumers have changed their behaviors has been the surge in buying of Recreational Vehicles (RVs) during the pandemic. While auto sales are flagging, RV sales to older generations such as Baby Boomers are surging. Older generations, fearing a second wave of COVID19, are looking for anything that resembles a vacation. RVs also provide the option of mobility to leave crowded cities.

RV sales, large discretionary vehicles, used to be a reliable recession indicator. Not this time. They're holding up well as many Americans lose their jobs.

Older and wealthier demographics are changing their behaviors as COVID19, both reality and hype, occupies the world's collective consciousness. As long as the perceived risk of traveling in trains, planes, and cruise ships remains high, don't expect a quick return of old "consumerism." Americans, a group saving saving again (see chart), are looking for cheaper more rewarding experiences. If this trend catches on, the economy which is highly dependent on leveraged consumption could take many years to reverse. The V-shape economic recovery highly touted in the headlines and social media assumes no significant changes in behavior. Behaviors are changing! If the older wealthier generations opt out of consumerism, at least temporarily, the economic recovery will not be V-shaped.

Savings Rates As % of GDP


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