Saturday, February 10, 2018

Stock Market Decline of 2018 Not To Be Compared to Recent History

All markets exist within unique cycles and combination of cycles, so don't try to compare, especially against recent history. Cycles are so long that its almost impossible today's market path will follow recent history. Best advise, let the tape, a trend derived from price, volume, and time, guide you. Here lies the problem for die hard bulls. 70% of all markets tracked in the Matrix have entered downside alignment. If that's not bad enough, every US stock index and group, with the exception of the VIX, are in downside alignment; upside alignment in the VIX is bearish! Even worse, cycle of Time says none of these are extended or old.

Headline: This stock-market shakeout looks a lot like 1996-97

The stock market’s turn from borderline euphoria to full-blown correction was swift and unsettling, but it isn’t completely unfamiliar territory, according to one of Wall Street’s top technicians.

Jeff deGraaf, chairman of Reinaissance Macro Research, said his firm has a program that looks at price changes for the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.49% over the last-12-month period and then compares them to rolling 12-month historical returns to find the highest correlation with current market action.



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