Monday, January 29, 2018

Is 2018 similar to 1928?

Robert Shiller, an often cited experts on markets and stocks, sees 2018 as similar to 1928 for US stocks. He could be right. Long-term cycle concentrations, while not identical, are showing similar trends but not levels. This means an exact repeat of 1928 and, more importantly, 1929 are unlikely. Rising social distress from the evolving economic and/or financial crisis will usher in an era of revolution around the world than increasing dependency and acceptance of the public sector.

Long term cycle concentrations for US stocks were above 3 and 4 standard deviations through all of 1928 (chart).  We are not seeing the same setup in 2018 yet.  Stocks must trade at even higher levels for that to happen.

Long-Term Cycle Concentration for US Stocks

Headline: Robert Shiller: The stock market today is similar to the stock market in 1928

President Donald Trump expressed frustration behind closed doors with people coming to the US from "shithole countries," sources told CNN on Thursday. One of the sources briefed on the Thursday Oval Office meeting with lawmakers confirmed Trump asked, "Why do we want all these people from 'shithole countries' coming here?"



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