Tuesday, October 24, 2017

This Not A Trump Rally in Stocks

Many, including the President, believe US stocks are rallying behind the policies and future policies of the current Administration. I reiterate, this is a false assumption. US stocks continue to defy bearish expectations largely because of international safe haven capital flows. Domestic investors are still a non-factor in the rally. If they were big players, sentiment would be extremely optimistic rather than neutral (see Sentiment Review).

Trump would be wise to bite his tongue as stocks enter an upside acceleration. While upside accelerations are rare, profitable for the bulls, they're also extremely dangerous for bagholders (late buyers). Furthermore, any trend that enter extreme upside concentration (not there yet) generally unwinds towards extreme downside concentration. Jesse Livermore, a master tape reader, got rich playing the run from 1924 to 1929. He also made a fortune shorting the stock market after 1929.  We could see a similar outcome unfold after 2019.

Headline: Trump can't stop tweeting about stock market records

President Donald Trump loves talking about the stock market. And how much it’s gone up.

Since Monday, October 16, Trump has tweeted at least eight times about the stock market, which continues to power to record highs.

Since November 9, 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 27%; the benchmark S&P 500 is up 20% over the same period. Twice in the last week Trump has referenced the blue chip index, which closed above 23,000 for the first time last week.



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