Monday, May 15, 2017

EM equities NOT more attractive than U.S.

The rush to buy emerging market stocks and debt, a move driven by hot money, is more a relief rally than the start of secular trend. Encouraging investors to chase foreign markets as the global economy and market tilt towards crisis illustrates how the majority becomes bagholders of unexpected trend changes. US stocks, consolidating since March under growing uncertainty of tax reform, are stronger than they look. Increasing alignment of price, leverage, and sentiment increases the odds of an unexpected move. Don't confuse a short-term relief rally with the start of secular trend.

Headline: DoubleLine's Gundlach: European, EM equities more attractive than U.S.

European and emerging markets equities are more attractive than U.S. equities, and volatility in stock markets is "insanely low," influential investor and head of DoubleLine Capital Jeffrey Gundlach told Reuters on Wednesday.

Gundlach, who oversees more than $100 billion at DoubleLine, and is known as the "Bond King" on Wall Street, said Europe and emerging markets are "significantly cheaper" on a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book basis.

"I'd rather much be overseas than in U.S," Gundlach said in an interview. "That's how I felt all year. Part of that was I felt - and it's fading a little bit but it's still a narrative - that the reason people were so bullish on the U.S. is a) it had done really well from 2011, b) they believed the dollar was going to go up a lot more. And I disagreed."



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