Friday, March 17, 2017

Beware The Ides of March For Stocks?

It's hard to find a bullish headlines these days. One I stumbled across starts with sort of a bullish forecast and finishes with a warning about the Ides of March. Everyone knows what happened to Julius Caesar. Those using seasonality as warning about March better be looking at the right time period. 2017 is the first year of the four year cycle, so a comparison to 1931 doesn't match up. The proper comparison would be 1933, if that somehow mattered. The real question is March a bad month for stocks? Long-term seasonal trends (Table 1) will do a better job answering that than the headlines.

Headline: Beware the Ides of March? Dow Dips as Stocks Finally Feels the Fed

The folks at Bespoke Investment Group looked at how the S&P 500 performed through the Ides of March–the 15th, that is–and compared it to the 10 years that were most similar…and came away with “One extremely ominous year”…1931:



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