Wednesday, February 1, 2017

US Economic Uptick Showing Follow Through

U.S. private employers added 246,000 jobs in January. This number, well above economists' expectations of 165,000 and merely one piece of a larger data pool that defines direction of the domestic economy, confirms Economic Activity Composite's rather unexpected bullish transition in December.

The Fed expectation of a measured tightening program in 2017 could be quickly cast for something more aggressive as long as the EAC displays expansionary trends. An aggressive Fed would push the dollar higher against major currencies that according to Trump 'live on devaluation'. It appears a lesson on the power of the invisible hand must be taught to the new Administration. Unfortunately, this lesson usually comes at the expense of taxpayers money.

Headline: Private payrolls grew 246K in January vs. 165K est.: ADP

Private companies kicked off the new year with a hiring spree, according to the latest report from ADP and Moody's Analytics.

Amid an explosive month surrounding President Donald Trump's inauguration and the flurry of activity that followed, firms added 246,000 new workers to their payrolls, the report showed.

That compared to expectations of 165,000 from economists surveyed by Reuters and marked a substantial jump from the downwardly revised 151,000 — initially reported as 153,000 — in December. January also turned in the best single-month performance since June.

"I don't recall ever seeing such a discrepancy between print and estimate in this survey but ADP is saying there was seasonal issues with retail and moderate weather helped too," Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.



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