Saturday, January 7, 2017

Trends Don't Follow Fundamentals

Whiff or home run from the jobs report, it doesn't matter. Trends in stocks, bonds, the US dollar, gold, commodities, etc, each driven by capital flows influenced by the invisible hand's expectation for the future, care little about the US jobs report. Stocks and US dollar climbed despite the whiff. Shouldn't they have fallen on poor fundamentals?  Most remain puzzled because they do not understand the message of the market.

Sometimes stocks rise and fall on bad and good fundamentals, i.e. weak or strong jobs report. In other words, capital flows influence how traders interpret the reports. Here lies the error. Rather than recognize the true driver of trend, they still focus on 'fundamental' for no other reason than because everyone else does. Yet, time and time again, the majority is always gets the timing wrong.  Those that stand with the majority will become the bagholders of trend transitions.

Headline: Jobs whiff, wages rise to a postcrisis high

US wages in December rose at the fastest pace since mid-2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report released Friday.

Average hourly earnings increased by 2.9% year-on-year. The economy added 156,000 jobs in December, which is fewer than expected but extends the record streak of job creation in the US.



Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.