Wednesday, July 6, 2016

#InvisibleHand Recognizes The Coming Crisis, Do You?

News
Slowing global growth, a trend likely to enter liquidation in late 2016 or 2017, will limit Europe's ability to service mounting bad debts within the already fragile banking sector. Italian banks, a group with rising bad debts, is particularly vulnerable. While the majority is pointing fingers at Britain (#BREXIT), they ignore the looming debt crisis engulfing the financial sector across the globe.

Large multi-national banks, insurance companies, and pension funds, those with the greatest exposure to public sector debts, are the most vulnerable and should be avoided or shorted. The financial sector's significant underperformance to the broader market since 2009 suggests that the invisible hand recognizes the 'vulnerabe' players and crisis ahead (chart).  Financial's underperformance comes as US trader near all-time highs.

Chart


Headline: Bad Debt Piled in Italian Banks Looms as Next Crisis

MILAN—Britain’s vote to leave the EU has produced dire predictions for the U.K. economy. The damage to the rest of Europe could be more immediate and potentially more serious. Nowhere is the risk concentrated more heavily than in the Italian banking sector.

In Italy, 17% of banks’ loans are sour. That is nearly 10 times the level in the U.S., where, even at the worst of the 2008-09 financial crisis, it was only 5%. Among publicly...


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