Monday, June 13, 2016

#USDollar Rallies Under Clinton or Trump Presidency

The dollar, driven more by international than domestic flows will rally under a Clinton or Trump presidency. That is, unless either Administration completely shatters global confidence in US governance. A complete loss of confidence, despite shock-and-awe headlines (see below), is a low-probability event that would likely need to include a breakdown in the rule of law, a rising threat of civil war, or an obvious transition from a Republic to Dictatorship.

Global events, including the growing threat of BREXIT, GREXIT, or some other country, favors numerous expected rallies. These rallies include a rising dollar, gold, tangible assets, and US stocks as the economy contracts.

Headline: Ian Bremmer: A Trump presidency will devalue the US dollar

There’s been no shortage of uncertainty in 2016. Whether it’s the outcome of the presidential race, the path of interest rates, or the fallout of a Brexit, investors have plenty of moving pieces to watch.

But there are geopolitical and economic trends we can see coming, says Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. Here are some of the trends he’s tracking:



Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.