Tuesday, June 7, 2016

#BREXIT Poll Shows 'Leave' Well Ahead of 'Remain'

The weak jobs report has many, especially those that view the world through the eyes of domestic policy, believing the Fed will not raise rates. The buying of Euro, gold, and commodities and selling of the dollar over the short-term confirmed this beliefs despite the well-defined and persistent distribution/accumulation of energy supporting long-term trends against these market reactions. The COT Matrix's DI and CAP, measures of accumulation, distribution, and sentiment, have been warning subscribers of the rising probability of unexpected change for months.

If the BREXIT happens as hinted below, the seeds of the Euro's demise, already sown, will be realized. The spreading contagion across Europe will only reinforce the flight of safety capital flows to the United States. This will send the dollar, US stocks, commodities, and real assets soaring against the expectation of the majority; expectations largely defined by the previous cycle and flawed market theories sold the public as absolute truth.

The Fed will raise rates in sympathy with market forces (invisible hand), not official policy expectations. After that, the majority will scream, point fingers of blame, largely at the Fed, and likely lose money because of their failure to view the global economy and markets through an international perspective defined by shifting trends of confidence and capital flows.

Any attempt to manage the BREXIT against the will of the majority, a move designed to buy time and maintain power for Brussels, will stoke the fires of social and political discontent. We should not discount this outcome since human behavior generally excludes the lessons from history.

Headline: 'Leave' sweepingly ahead of 'Remain' in Brexit poll of subscribers: Daily Telegraph

Subscribers of a UK newspaper are overwhelmingly in support of a vote for Britain to leave the European Union, according to a poll published on the website of the Daily Telegraph.

Sixty-nine percent of the nearly 19,000 subscribers polled by the Daily Telegraph were in support of Britain's exit from the 28-member bloc, while 29 percent intended to vote to remain. (bit.ly/1Y9RtJA)



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