Tuesday, May 17, 2016

#Economy Already Past The Pivot Point

The economy, a multi-dimensional system that follows cycles within cycles, past the all important 'pivot point' in January 2015 when the Economic Activity Composite (EAC) generated a bearish crossover. The bearish crossover defined deceleration that will likely culminate in an officially recognized recession either in late 2016 or 2017; it will likely come well after the fact and after frequent revisions to official economic data. Few other than regular readers recognize the deceleration today, because majority generally responds only to screams of FIRE! in the crowded hotel ballroom we call the global economy.

Headline: El-Erian: The economy is approaching a 'pivot' point

The U.S. is currently in its seventh year of what can broadly be described as a bull market. Unemployment is at eight-year lows, and wages are rising. Things are good, but some economists fear that they’ve been good for too long and that recession is imminent. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, agrees. “Within the next two years, we’re not going to be able to maintain the world we’ve maintained for the last five to seven years,” he says.



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