The majority still views Trump as a clear loser against Hillary. This theory likely assumes that the economy won't weaken significantly before November and blue-collar democrats won't cross the aisle and vote for Trump. Economic Activity Composite (EAC)'s negative trend and pervasive political anger towards both parties favors unexpected outcomes.
Even if the 'unexpected' occurs, there's no guarantee Trump will nominated by the GOP. If Trump is bypassed, do they expect a gracious exit speech without push back? Unlikely. Trump's response, a bid to run as an Independent, would pull even more voters from establishment candidates.
Headline: This is where the angriest voters are
With brawls breaking out at campaign rallies, voter anger is a major and surprising factor in this year’s presidential campaign.
Republican Donald Trump, widely written off when he declared his candidacy last summer, has become his party’s front-runner by harnessing the rage of older, less-educated Americans who feel they’re falling hopelessly behind. Democrat Bernie Sanders, once considered a pipsqueak next to Hillary Clinton, now rouses multitudes with his rants against crony capitalism. There’s a common theme: Even though unemployment is low and employers are creating more than 200,000 new jobs per month, a large part of America isn’t participating in the recovery and finds prosperity further and further out of reach.
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