Thursday, February 18, 2016

#EuropeanBanks Remain A Slow Motion Trainwreck That Few Recognize

According the Economist,

The gross value of non-performing loans makes up a whopping 18% of their total lending; retail investors own some €200 billion of bank bonds, equivalent to 12% of GDP. A government plan to buy bad debts from the banks at close to face value would fall foul of European rules against “state aid”.

As of 2016, troubled banks must deal with capital shortfalls through “bail ins” rather than taxpayer funds. We'll likely find out whether Europeans are ok with that by 2017.

Headline: Borrowed time

FOR those who worry that a repeat of the crisis of 2007-08 is imminent, this week brought fresh omens. Shares of big banks tumbled; despite a mid-week rally, American lenders are down by 19% this year, European ones by 24% (see article). The cost of insuring banks’ debts against default rose sharply, especially in Europe. The boss of Deutsche Bank felt obliged to declare that the institution he runs is “absolutely rock solid”; Germany’s finance minister professed to have no concerns (thereby adding to the concerns). This is not 2008: big banks are not about to topple. But there are reasons to worry, and many of them converge on one country.



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