Friday, January 22, 2016

If the Selling In Crude Is Irrational Now, What Will It Be Near The Bottom?

The characterization of irrational trend based on a few facts compiled largely by opinion is the pinnacle of irrationality.

"Who's the more foolish, the fool, or the fool who follows him?", Obi-Wan Kenobi, to Han Solo Star Wars 1977.

If crude oil is 'irrational' below $30, what will it be when even more irrational prices generate cycle readings consistent with a long-term bottom? It will be nothing. Nobody but a small minority will be following oil.

Headline: Forget the glut, oil enters irrational territory

World oil markets quietly breached an important barrier as they crashed nearly 30 percent to below $30 a barrel in the opening weeks of 2016, crossing the fuzzy line separating a rational response to fundamentals from an irrational fear where the only way forward is down, down, down.

Animal spirits have taken over the futures markets of New York and London, with momentum-driven algorithmic traders and big hedge funds driving oil prices far beyond the point that even once-bearish analysts say is justified - at least in the medium-term - by supply and demand.



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