Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Poor Retail Sales Not Weather Related

Human behavior, likely encoded deep within psyche and possibly DNA, encourages finger pointing rather than acknowledging limitations in understanding. When retail sales deviate from our forecast, blame the weather rather than ask what did I miss. The weather conspiracy is a simple, rarely challenged explanation that keeps the majority, quite frankly, blissfully stupid. As a rule, reviews, interpretations, and explanations of markets or trends that cites influences that cannot be consistently challenged through scientific method should be ignored. For example, the citing of abnormal weather patterns as hurting retail sales. Can abnormal (weather patterns) be consistently defined throughout decades, centuries, and/or millenniums? Can the affects of weather be isolated from retail sales? This must be shown or proved.

Retail stocks, a leading indicator of retail sales and health of consumers, have been declining steadily (deteriorating) against the broader stock market long before 'abnormal weather patterns' arrived in October.

Headline: HERE WE GO AGAIN: Bank of America says 'abnormal weather patterns' may have hurt retail sales in October

"The weather" is back.

In a note to clients on Tuesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said a warmer-than-average month will negatively impact the October retail sales report.



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