Saturday, October 17, 2015

Recalculating and Reprogramming COT Matrix and Review Output

Mailbox
Q:

Hi Eric,

Been noticing some things that appear to be mistakes in the auto-populate macros... I assumed you would catch them over time after you started auto-populating, but they're still fairly common.

Recent examples -

10/06 Review of Silver

The text states "A positive long-term leverage oscillator defines an up impulse and bear phase (chart 2)." But chart 2 shows a down impulse near -50% and fill color is green for bull phase.

10/13 COT Matrix

shows BULL XO for Gold leverage with ITCO -41% and LTCO -18%. The prior week matrix shows gold leverage at ITCO -36% LTCO -45%. There was no XO this week. The last XO was on 9/22 matrix.

Again, I'm guessing these are form fields that are auto-populated. It appears the macros need to be checked for accuracy.

Thanks, and keep up the good work!

Mitch

A:

Thanks Mitch,

Correct and very astute.

Everything is being reprogrammed. Data from the old COT tables will not match. I am considering removing ITCO (intermediate trends ) from price and leverage in the COT Matrix. While some readers may be correctly using ITCOs and the older, faster LTCO for shorter-term risk management and trading, their frequent signals are likely confusing them. Confusion often leads to inaction for the average investor. This is bad.

I have slowed down price and leverage trends (why numbers don't match) to reduce the number of bullish and bearish crossovers. In other words, less frequent crossovers, should not be ignored. Either tighten risk management or follow the trend.

DI and CAP lead leverage trends. For example, Nasdaq 100's bullish setup, likely foreshadows bullish crossovers in leverage and price. Leverage often leads price, so a bullish crossover in leverage is expected first. The simultaneous agreement of price and leverage trends define highly organized impulses. The US Dollar Index defines a highly organized impulse.

Today's SP 500 Review, the latest attempt to reduce information and shorten the format (less charts), should be a cleaner.

The computer does autofill, but frankly, it's not 'smart' enough to interpret the message of the market consistently. It does pretty good, but, if left unchecked, it generates plenty of confusing interpretations. The computer cannot handle cycle of accumulation and distribution interpretations at all. That's where I must step in.

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