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Friday, June 7, 2013

Jobless Claims Lead The Rest Is Mostly Hype

Resilience will give way to unexpected weakness in the months ahead as the stock display bullish concentration.  An upward breakout of the power down trend (PDT) in average weekly initial jobless claims (AWIC) should lead the transition. The labor report which includes jobs, unemployment rate, and other heavily promoted data series do not display leading characteristics.  In other words, it's a marginal timing tool despite the endless media hype.

Chart 1: SP 500 (SP500AVG), Average Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (AWIC) and AWIC Cycle Z Scores (AWICC1and2)

Headline: U.S. hiring points to resilience in economy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers stepped up hiring a bit in May in a show of economic resilience that suggests the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back its monetary stimulus later this year.

The United States added 175,000 jobs last month after adding only 149,000 in April, the Labor Department said on Friday. The May job growth figure was just above the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.



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