Since 35% have voted either Don't Know or message of the market says..., it suggests many are trying to learn how to stand alone.
Those trying might consider the following:
- Reality rarely equals perception. That's why unexpected things happen in markets.
- Where does reality stand? The growing cash position in the commercial banking system reflects a 'disconnect' between reality and perception (chart 1).
- Disconnects, like tectonic plates shifting unexpectedly, can release a tremendous amount of energy into system. That system can be a city, market, economy, or one's portfolio of investments (chart 2).
Chart 1: Cash As % of Total Bank Credit (Cash%TBC) and S&P 500
Chart 2: Cash As % of Total Bank Credit (Cash%TBC) and S&P 500
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