The economic recovery has positively concentrated the US federal budget. While skeptics and contrarians likely view this concentrated rise as extended and negative, it must be viewed within the context of larger economic up cycle until 2016 transition (red to green block transition). In other words, this could be one of many concentrated readings leading up to 2016. As the 2016 transition approaches, the probability that a concentrated reading suggests trouble ahead increases dramatically.
Chart: Large Cap Stock Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI) and US Federal Budget (Surplus or Deficit As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average) Cycle Z Scores (SDC1 & SDC2)
Headline: Growth in US budget deficit slows in January
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The federal government reported a rare surplus for January and is on track to run its smallest annual budget deficit since President Barack Obama took office.
The Treasury Department said Tuesday that the government took in a surplus of $2.9 billion in January. That's the first monthly surplus since April, a month that benefited from income tax payments.
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