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Thursday, September 20, 2012

Oil's Flash Crash Focuses On Symptoms Rather Than Intention

In a world where politics (and political interests) and big money are deeply intertwined stable markets such crude oil can take on the appearance of the party game called hot potato. That’s why it's extremely important to follow the actions of the invisible hand in today's volatile markets. For instance, aggressive accumulation while the headlines discuss the meaning of another "flash crash" could suggest an orchestrated decline intended to change ownership of the trend. This potential setup is illustrated by the blue arrows in the chart below (chart).

Smart money would then ask why and why now? Perhaps it's all option related...or, maybe, a strike against Iran’s nuclear capabilities is closer than the world realizes.

Chart:  Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI)

Headline:  One big order, thousands of small ones, seen behind oil tumble


(Reuters) - A single large sell order in the benchmark European Brent oil market, followed by an abrupt U-turn among high-frequency traders, may have caused one of the most abrupt price routs ever, brokers and analysts said on Tuesday.

As the dust settled on Monday's four-minute, nearly $4 plunge, other possible causes such as an erroneous "fat finger" trade, a computer program run amok or a broad, rumor-driven sell-off were set aside in favor of a combination of one big trade - potentially as much as 12 million barrels worth some $1.4 billion - and tens of thousands of computerized orders.

"There was most likely a large fundamental seller in the market yesterday," said Eric Scott Hunsader, Chief Executive of Nanex, a trading consultancy that regularly conducts detailed forensic analysis of erratic market activity

Source:  in.reuters.com


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