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Thursday, September 13, 2012

Liquidity Can Do Only So Much

A rising stock market has become increasing important to household wealth creation as long as the job market stagnates and real incomes continue to fall.  Will the job market and household incomes improve when the stock market peaks by 2015 (chart)?  If not, the next cyclical contraction of 2015-2017 with a greater depression will make the experience of 2007-2009 already dubbed the Great Recession seem like child’s play in comparison.

Chart:  Large Cap Stocks Total Return Index (LCSTRI) and Z Scores of Secular Trends 


Headline:   Dow climbs to highest since 2007

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow industrials closed at the highest level in nearly five years on Tuesday in a lightly traded session before key decisions in Germany and the United States that could give markets a further boost.


Energy, industrial and financial firms led the advance. Contributing to gains by the Dow industrials, shares of International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N) rose 1.15 percent to $203.27. Heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar (CAT.N) added 1.72 percent to $88.60.

Equities have rallied in recent weeks on hopes for monetary stimulus by central banks. The Federal Reserve could announce Thursday additional steps to support low interest rates. On Wednesday, Germany's highest court will decide on the legality of the euro zone's new bailout fund.

Source:  finance.yahoo.com

Headline:  Household income drops for 4th straight year


The income of the typical American household fell last year for the fourth consecutive year, the longest sustained period of decline since the early 2000s. Americans are now poorer than they were in 1999 after taking into account how inflation erodes the value of the dollar.

Median household income fell after adjusting for inflation to $50,100 in 2011, down 1.5% from a year earlier.


The Census Bureau's annual income report is considered a key indicator of the economic health of the nation and its middle class. Median income is the true middle point of American households — half made more, half made less in 2011.

Source:  usatoday.com

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