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Friday, August 10, 2012

Drought, food prices fan fears of new crisis

The global food crisis driven by demand rising faster than supply has been an ongoing problem for decades.  Recognition of the problem has only attracted media attention since 2008.  The world is unprepared for a resumption of the 2000 up trends highlighted by the green arrows in the charts below.


Chart 1:  CRB Spot And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change


Chart 2:  CRBFoodstuffs And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change



Headline:  Drought, food prices fan fears of new crisis


(Reuters) - Global alarm over a potential repeat of the 2008 food crisis escalated after data showed food prices had jumped 6 percent last month and importers were snapping up a shriveled U.S. grain crop, helping drive corn prices to a new record.

Ahead of a critical government report on Friday on the state of the U.S. corn and soybean crops, which have been decimated by the worst drought in over five decades, the United Nation's food agency warned against the kind of export bans, tariffs and buying binges that worsened the price surge four years ago.

"There is potential for a situation to develop like we had back in 2007/08," the Food and Agriculture Organisation's senior economist and grain analyst Abdolreza Abbassian told Reuters.

"There is an expectation that this time around we will not pursue bad policies and intervene in the market by restrictions, and if that doesn't happen we will not see such a serious situation as 2007/08. But if those policies get repeated, anything is possible."

Adding a further risk of strain on global food supplies, Japan's official weather bureau said on Friday its climate monitoring data and models indicated the El Nino phenomenon had already emerged and was likely to last until winter.
Source:  reuters.com




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