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Saturday, June 30, 2012

A Fool And His Money Are Easily Parted

Jim is absolutely right. The public's sole expectation of "save me" over all other considerations makes infinite liquidity the only other guarantee other than death, taxes and maybe continued erosion of privacy by technology for millions of Americans, Europeans, Japanese, Asians, etc. Unfortunately, the constant ebb and flow of capital and headline misdirection means a substantial number of investors will not be participating in what will become knows as one of history's greatest bull market runs.

I believe general Anthony McAuliffe's reply of NUTS! to the German's surrender ultimatum at the battle of the bulge applies to the following suggestions:

  • Sell gold to buy stocks?

Chart 1: U.S. Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI); S&P 500 to Gold Ratio and Z Scores from Secular Trend


  • Sell gold mining stocks to buy stocks, gold, even bonds (PU)? 

Gold stocks are so hated their underperformance relative to stocks has reached 1976 levels.

Chart 2: Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index to S&P Gold Mining Ratio (LCSCAIGPMR) and Z Score of Secular Trend


Their underperformance relative to gold is approaching the 1973, 2000, and 2008 statistical extremes.

Chart 3: S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* to Gold Ratio: * S&P Gold from 1945, Barron's Gold Stock Index from 1939-1945, 1922-1939 Homestake Mining


Anyone selling gold (gold shares) to buy bonds for the long-term gives credence to the old saying a fool and his money are easily parted.

Chart 4: Long-Term U.S. Government Bonds Total Return Index (LTGBTRI) to Gold Ratio


Dear Eric:
Printing $$ electronically "to infinity" is simple. Be assured everything that is required $$ wise, here and there, will, without any doubt, be provided. That is the thesis of gold that will never, in our life times, fail. The politician that will be thrown out is the one that would do the right thing if he lived to the end of his term. QE to Infinity is certain everywhere in the West, except to Iceland that already died from it and was reincarnated reborn.
Ry, Jim


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