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Friday, May 4, 2012

Waiting For The Next Earthquake In Silver

Falling lease spreads continue to reflect the heavy hand of control leaning on the price of silver (see chart 1).

Chart: Silver Lease Spread Composite (SLSC) and Silver Price, USD


Why? A large short position in the future and options market needs to be covered. This can be done into either weakness or strength. The former keeps the short standing upright with money in pocket, while the latter place it on an expensive stretcher the could carry economic and political consequences.  While stretchers are the preferred form of transportation for retail money, they are rarely used on connected interests.

A spike in the silver long/short concentration index (CI) or "earthquakes before the price eruptions" will indicate a significant reduction in this short.  These signals which have preceded every major intermediate advance of the secular bull market signal are extremely important to timing silver (see chart 2).  The next signal will be seventh cluster since 2001.

Chart 2: Silver London P.M Fixed and the Silver Long/Short Concentration Index (CI)


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