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Friday, December 9, 2011

Strong Consumer Expectation Will Setup Gold's Next Advance

Improving outlook for the economy, yeah right? Says who? Individuals come to support, even blindly believe without proof, an argument because crowd stands behind it. The crowd says, come join us, if we're wrong, we'll be wrong together. Crowd behavior, the power of the mob, is a seductive force that ensures 99% of the investment population will be on the wrong side of the trade at the wrong time.

The crowd will come to believe that gold is a sale because confidence is rising. Those that use objective analysis and discipline know that rising confidence will setup its next decline and provide the fuel for another gold advance as the monetary and debt crisis continues to worsen.

Rising confidence is bullish for gold because mathematics reveals that it has a strong inverse correlation with gold when confidence in centralized economic management is deteriorating.

University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (CE) and Gold: A Correlation Study

Headline: Consumer sentiment strongest since June

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in six months in early December due to signs of better labor conditions and an improving outlook on the economy.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on their overall index of consumer confidence climbed for a fourth straight month to 67.7. This compared with 64.1 in November and a low of 55.7 back in August.

The early December figure exceeded the 65.5 predicted by analysts recently polled by Reuters.

"News about recent economic developments were much more positive in early December. Reports of net job growth have increased in each of the past three months, as have assessments of current conditions in the economy," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

Measures of consumers' current and future assessment of economic and financial conditions also rose to their highest levels since June.

The survey's barometer of current economic conditions edged up to 77.9 in early December from 77.6 in November. Analysts had predicted a reading of 78.0.


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