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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Long Term Bullish, Short-Term Bearish My Arse

"Long-term bullish but short-term bearish on gold" headlines has been repeated many times since 2001. Short-term trading an accelerating trend is difficult for even the best of the best. Besides, most couldn't recognize parabolic or statistically extended even if it bite them in hind end.

Strange and unexpected things will happen, as long as money continues to behave strangely in gold.

Gold, London P.M. Fixed (Gold) and Z Scores of Secular Trend


Headline: Don't Buy Into 'Gold Bubble' Hype But Believe In A Correction

Gold continued to make headlines last week, reaching nearly $1,900 an ounce on Friday before resting around the $1,850 level.

Gold’s 15 percent rise to new nominal highs over the past month has rekindled “gold bubble” talk from many pundits. Long-term gold bulls have been forced to listen to these naysayers since gold reached $500 an ounce. If you would have joined their groupthink then, you would’ve missed gold’s roughly 270 percent rise since.

That said, gold is due for a correction. It would be a non-event to see a 10 percent drop in gold. This would actually be a healthy development for markets by shaking out the short-term speculators while the long-term story remains on solid ground.

Forty years ago this week, President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window,” ending the gold-backed global monetary system established at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 and kicking off a decade of stagflation for the U.S. economy.

At the time, $1 would buy 1/35th an ounce of gold. Today, $1 will net you about 1/1,178th an ounce of gold. Put differently, “One U.S. dollar now buys only 2 cents worth of the gold it could buy in 1971,” says Gold Stock Analyst. This means that consumers have lost roughly 98 percent of their purchasing power compared to gold over the past 40 years.

Source: forbes.com

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