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Thursday, July 28, 2011

More Signs of Economic Rollover

The economy under the weight of excessive debts and waning stimulus, is slowing at the margin. As long as key economic time series continue to rollover over, the pressure to initiate another quantitative easing (QE) program, either front or back door, will only increase.

Real Business Core Capital Spending: Real or CPI-Adjusted New Orders of Durable Goods ex. defense and aircraft (RBCCS) and YOY Change


Real or CPI-Adjusted Retail Sales (RRS) and YOY Change


Headline: Instant view: Durable goods orders fall on transportation

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in June, weighed down by weak receipts for transportation equipment, a government report showed on Wednesday.

COMMENTS:

JOSHUA SHAPIRO, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, MARIA FIORINI RAMIREZ INC, NEW YORK

"The headline is generally not a meaningful number because defense capital goods can be very volatile. If you look at the underlying data for June, it could be pretty great...If you strip out to the volatile categories, it's kind of a soft month."

"You're seeing some of the effect of the slowdown in the manufacturing sector. The headline number for this report is not a meaningful number. This doesn't say a lot about what we might see in the future."
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DAN DORROW, HEAD OF RESEARCH, FAROS TRADING, STAMFORD, CONNECTICUT

"I really focus on the core, which is the non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. I don't like to interpret too much from one month of a volatile series, but the trend over the last couple of quarters suggests the business sector is intact in terms of gradual expansion. Our view is the United States is going to lag the rest of the world, as growth is going to be export- and investment-driven. This number says that basic trend is intact."

Source: reuters.com

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