I can't help but think of the following quote from The Shawshank Redemption (1994):
Red - Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.
Hope is a dangerous thing from an economic and investing standpoint. It can make you recognize trends or inflection points that do not exist. There was a lot of "hope" between 1976 and 1978 that the employment situation had turned the corner. Unfortunately, the power of the economic cycle smashed this misplaced hope and investors positioned to profit from it.
Average Weekly Initial Claims State Unemployment (AWIC) And YOY Change:
Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, the second drop in a row and a hopeful sign the job market could be improving.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for jobless benefits dropped by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000 in the week that ended Oct. 23.